This article moves beyond descriptives of how we "do" change in a test of whether there is an empirical basis for knowing where in its life cycle is organizational change research. Questioning typical assumptions about change, it indicates what progress in the field looks like by plotting the patterning of temporal effects and life cycle in articles published in eight journals between 1947 and 2008 (n = 473). Findings indicate that the publication of more on change has not equated with more developed knowledge. As a community, change researchers are overwhelmingly focused on the most conservative type of progress, resulting in research that replicates rather than extends or develops, which ranks fairly low on a knowledge development scale. This illusion of knowledge development is described and explained by researcher reliance on existing idea mobilization and on belief prisons. The article concludes with discussion of implications for research and publishing practice. Keywords organizational change, knowledge development, temporal effect In 1963, Edmund Gettier published a short article about the conditions necessary for a person's belief to become knowledge, presenting knowledge as "justified true belief." He describes two cases in which a person has, for a given proposition P, validly Schwarz 343 inferred from some other proposition which the person was justified in believing, but which was, in fact, false. Based on this interpretation, Gettier claimed that a person may have a belief without actually having knowledge. Earlier, in 1956, George Miller wrote about the limits of such information transmission. He argued that the span of absolute judgment and the span of immediate memory are imperfect, imposing limitations on the amount of information a person is able to receive, process, and remember. This knowledge limitation, he wrote, can only be resolved by chunking information into manageable sequences. Spawning intense debate, both articles highlighted restrictions to the ways that knowledge is cultivated and progresses. With these lessons as its stimulus, this article explores how knowledge about change has developed in organizational change research by considering what progress in a field looks like. Traditionally, guided by an interest in discovery, we have come to expect that knowledge in the social sciences develops along a typical trajectory: Knowledge grows as it is created, tested, and disseminated, before this rate of growth slowly declines as new or disruptive ideas are introduced. But is this assumption accurate for organizational change research? Put differently, is there an empirical basis for knowing where organizational change research is in its life cycle? The value of asking this framing question is that it recognizes that we cannot fully appreciate the significance of a particular organizational or social variable without understanding how it got there. Given previous debate in the social sciences assuming paths of discovery and evolution (Maguire, 1973; Maturana & Varela, 1987), the questio...