Transition to postmodern science—related scientometric data

Abstract

A change in scientific developments in recent decades is widely proclaimed which may be associated with terms like postmodern science or steady state science. This change is usually discussed from a more epistemological viewpoint. In order to enhance the understanding of the underlying key factors, bibliometric, demographic and Nobel Prize recipient data spanning of the last hundred years are considered and analyzed. It is found that in general the considered data point to a quasi-steady state in bibliometric developments of highly developed countries. For emerging countries, such a steady state is not yet attained; therefore, the research output in scientific journal articles is still expected to rise considerably. Consequences and interpretations of an ever growing research output in relation to the increasing age of Nobel Prize recipients are discussed and conclusions are drawn from the considered data.

Price revisited: on the growth of dissertations in eight research fields

“…The analysis of dissertations in all fields shows a pattern which is similar to other studies (Han et al 2010) analysing the growth of dissertations: standard S-shaped growth during the sixties and the early seventies, followed by stagnation during the late seventies and early eighties. Several reasons have been proposed for this decline; a saturated academic labour market, less spending on research due to the Vietnam war and the oil crisis and the economic recession that followed (Thurgood et al 2006).…”

“…The hard sciences also showed a small decline after 1970 and in the social sciences stagnation occurred during these years. Han et al (2010) confirm that the growth of doctoral degrees decline in the 1970s but during the first three quarters of the 20th century the number of PhDs grew by approximately 7% a year. Thus, it seems that with a few exceptions there is a general decline in PhDs during the seventies-a development that is usually explained by economic and political factors (e.g.…”

“…Usually these units are used to determine scientific growth visually using plots on a graph. The different units often converge, and Han et al (2010) found a correlation between annual numbers of doctorates and worldwide output of scientific articles. However, the growth of article outputs is greater than that of new doctorates, but this is mainly related to emerging countries (e.g.…”

“…However, the growth of article outputs is greater than that of new doctorates, but this is mainly related to emerging countries (e.g. China and India) where article output is increasing rapidly (Han et al 2010).…”

“…Thus, it seems that with a few exceptions there is a general decline in PhDs during the seventies-a development that is usually explained by economic and political factors (e.g. the Vietnam war, the moon landing, ecological concern and the oil crisis) (Han et al 2010;Mabe and Amin 2001).…”