Transition and Triad

Abstract

Transition and TriadA year into the global pandemic successful vaccination campaigns, first in Israel followed by the United Kingdom and the United States, have shown that the virus can be contained effectively once 75 percent or more of the adult population has been fully vaccinated. Even though global access to the vaccines has so far left much to be desired, amidst a still inadequate effort at worldwide cooperation and coordination, the end of the pandemic is in sight. As more and more places are reopening, economic activity can resume. Despite considerable damage to jobs and businesses, economies have proven remarkably resilient in their ability to bounce back. Recoveries have by and large been quite strong, better for the most part than predicted earlier when the pandemic still raged. Such encouraging signs of revival are certainly the result of extraordinary levels of both fiscal and monetary stimulation providing a strong impetus for pent-up demand and reorganized supply capacity to interact productively. We thus have a chance to shake off the global deflation context to which much of the world economy had been subjected since the Great Financial Crisis of 2007/08. The pandemic will also have left us with new political openings, crucial policy shifts, and profound structural change.All this points to the potential for the launch of yet another long wave and the emergence of a new accumulation regime driving the latter's upswing phase. It is still too early to know whether this is indeed possible. Will the post-pandemic recovery be sufficiently strong