Transformation towards a Renewable Energy System in Brazil and Mexico—Technological and Structural Options for Latin America

Abstract

Newly industrialized countries face major challenges to comply with the Paris Treaty targets as economic growth and prosperity lead to increasing energy demand. Our paper analyses technological and structural options in terms of energy efficiency and renewable energies for a massive reduction of energy-related CO 2 emissions in Latin America. Brazil and Mexico share similar growth prospects but differ significantly with respect to renewable energy potentials. We identify, how this leads to different transformation pathways. By applying an energy system balancing model we develop normative energy system transformation scenarios across the heating, power, and mobility sectors, including their potential interactions. The normative scenarios rely on three basic strategies for both countries: (1) strong exploitation of efficiency potentials; (2) tapping the renewable energy potentials; and (3) sector coupling and electrification of heat supply and transport. Despite economic growth, significant CO 2 emission reductions could be achieved in Brazil from 440 Gt/a (2.2 t/cap) in 2012 to 0.4 Gt (2 kg/cap) in 2050 and in Mexico from 400 Gt/a (3.3 t/cap) to 80 Gt (0.5 t/cap). Our study shows the gap between existing policy and scenarios and our strategies, which provide an economically feasible way to comply with the Paris treaty targets.

100% Renewable Energy Supply for Brazil—The Role of Sector Coupling and Regional Development

“…The modelling results show that the Brazilian power system is able to equally address the challenges of providing sufficient electricity and eliminating direct GHG emissions. With regard to affordability, our results indicate that a completely renewable power system in Brazil will not lead to significantly increased costs, despite the additional transmission and generation capacity [41].…”

“…This scenario represents a pathway to a fully RE supply across all sectors by 2050. According to [41], we assume that heat production and transport will increasingly rely on electricity and synthetic hydrogen, causing almost a doubling in power demand by 2050. Final energy demand in electricity increases to 325 TWh/year in industry, and to 412 TWh/year in the residential and service sector.…”

“…They reflect the concentration of population and industry to the Sudeste region [42,43]. In the case study presented here, we consider the energy demand and technology data for 2050, which is used as target year for a fully renewable supply in [41]. (Table A2).…”

“…The total electricity demand considered in the case study is based on a comprehensive scenario of the future development of the Brazilian energy system [41]. This scenario represents a pathway to a fully RE supply across all sectors by 2050.…”

“…Maps of all existing major hydro dams are available in [39,48,49]. Based on the comprehensive scenario development presented in [41], we furthermore assume the existence of wave power plants, biomass CHP plants, and stationary fuel cells with overall electric capacities of 4.6 GW, 19.4 GW, and 0.8 GW, respectively. Both biomass CHP and fuel cell systems contribute to the supply of renewable heat to residential, commercial and industrial consumers.…”