Transferable Principles for Managing the Nexus: Lessons from Historical Global Water Modelling of Central Asia

Abstract

Abstract:The complex relationships within the water-energy-food security nexus tend to be place-specific, increasing the importance of identifying transferable principles to facilitate implementation of a nexus approach. This paper aims to contribute transferable principles by using global model data and concepts to illustrate and analyze the water history of Central Asia. This approach builds on extensive literature about Central Asia and global change as well as recent advances in global water modeling. Decadal water availability and sectorial water consumption time series are presented for the whole 20th century, along with monthly changes in discharge attributable to human influences. Concepts from resilience and socio-ecological system theory are used to interpret the results and identify five principles relevant to managing the transboundary nexus: (1) the subsystems included/excluded from the nexus are case-specific and should be consciously scrutinized; (2) consensus is needed on what boundaries can acceptably be crossed within the nexus; (3) there is a need to understand how reducing trade-offs will modify system dependencies; (4) global stakeholders have both a responsibility and right to contribute to the shaping of the nexus; (5) combining data with global and local perspectives can help to enhance transferability and understanding of shared problems in our globalized world.

The Water-Energy-Food Nexus and the Transboundary Context: Insights from Large Asian Rivers

“…This provides a foundation for an illustrative comparative nexus analysis for three regions centred around selected transboundary Asian river basins. Based on this analysis as well as the relevant findings from the other articles published in this Special Issue [17,21,[26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33], we then discuss what the nexus means in the specific context of transboundary river basins, noting the implications that transboundary context bring to nexus approaches, and vice versa.…”

“…As the name suggests, the purpose of the comparative analysis is to provide a general comparison of how the nexus manifests itself in different transboundary regions with large river basins. It builds on our previous research in these regions (e.g., [27,30,[56][57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64][65][66]) as well as key literature referred to in the text. Comparative analysis is not intended to provide an in-depth analysis of a nexus situation in any particular region or river basin.…”

Water in Central Asia: an integrated assessment for science-based management

“…The nexus concept, which considers the tradeoffs between different water-dependent activities, has recently received a strong attention for mitigating Central Asia's water challenges. Typically, a strong emphasis is on energy and food, because (a) hydropower plays a significant role for regional energy production and (b) irrigation is the largest single consumer of water (de Strasser et al 2016;Guillaume et al 2015). In fact, a centrally managed water-food-energy nexus existed during socialist times, but collapsed with the breakup of the Soviet Union (Bekchanov and Lamers 2016).…”

“…On the implementation side, a specific focus has been on holistic concepts such as Integrated Water Resources Management and the food-waterenergy nexus (Guillaume et al 2015;Ibisch et al 2016a;Jalilov et al 2015;Karthe et al 2015b), which lie at the core of most national water management strategies of the region. Advances in water management increasingly require a sound scientific basis, which over the past decade was covered not only by several books and thematic issues in international journals, but also by the emergence of a specific journal focusing on water management in the Central Asian region (Table 1).…”

Essentials of Endorheic Basins and Lakes: A Review in the Context of Current and Future Water Resource Management and Mitigation Activities in Central Asia

“…This complex nexus requires cooperation between countries that share a common past and should work together to build a secure future where resources are concerned. Guillaume et al [136] reviewed the history of transboundary water use in CA using the nexus concept, and concluded that governments, scientists, civil societies and consumers must all play a role in the transformation of the water-energy-food security framework in order for it to be successful. Such a transformation will only be possible through considerable institutional changes and reforms in the region.…”