Trans-Pacific Rebalancing: Thailand Case Study

Abstract

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in Asian Development Bank InstituteThe Working Paper series is a continuation of the formerly named Discussion Paper series; the numbering of the papers continued without interruption or change. ADBI's working papers reflect initial ideas on a topic and are posted online for discussion. ADBI encourages readers to post their comments on the main page for each working paper (given in the citation below). Some working papers may develop into other forms of publication. The views expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the TDRI, or the Asian Development Bank (ADB), its Board of Governors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use. The countries listed in this presentation do not imply any view on ADB's part as to sovereignty or independent status or necessarily conform to ADB's terminology.Asian Development Bank Institute Kasumigaseki Building 8F 3-2-5 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku Tokyo 100-6008, Japan AbstractSince the Asian financial crisis in 1997, Thailand has become highly dependent on export as the engine of economic recovery and growth. In 2008, the ratio of export to gross domestic product (GDP) was 76.5%. The global economic crisis triggered by the sub-prime loans debacle in the United States has prompted Thailand to rethink her export-led growth strategy. Year-on-year export growth plunged from a positive 22.7% in the third quarter of 2008 to a negative 7.75% in the fourth quarter and remained negative for another four quarters, leading to a negative growth of GDP for five consecutive quarters. This paper examines the options for external and internal economic rebalancing strategies for Thailand. External rebalancing will require Thailand to rely less on the US market for her exports. The paper thus examines the possibility of promoting greater regional trade by means of trade agreements and exchange rate coordination. As for internal rebalancing, the paper emphasizes the need to boost domestic public and private investment in terms of both quantity and quality in order to narrow the current savings-investment gap, bearing in mind the need to ensure fiscal sustainability. Finally, the paper examines broader rebalancing strategies that will help Thailand to become less dependent on exports. These include the need to (1) improve product...

Development of Inward Foreign Direct Investments in Thailand: Determinants, Effects and Implications

“…His researched revealed that the most frequently considered factors in deciding whether to engage in FDI are: infrastructure and political stability of the host country, market growth potential and cultural environments (social and cultural factors). In a different vein, to narrow the current savings-investment gap between Thailand and the United States by managing international trade and FDI, Sussangkarn and Nikomborirak (2011) examined potential external and internal economic rebalancing strategies for Thailand. Their results showed that broader rebalancing strategies would help Thailand to become relatively less dependent on exports.…”

“…Thailand has faced substantial growth in FDI globally; this type of increased growth has drawn scholars and researchers to put more effort into understanding the empirical determinants and the relationships between a country's growth and FDI inflows. However, they mostly only considered time series analysis as combined IFDI amount from all sources (aggregate FDI data) and single partner issues (Thanyakhan, 2008;Boonlua, 2011;Sussangkarn and Nikomborirak, 2011;Sermcheep, 2013;Anuchitworawong and Thampanishvong, 2014). This paper considers the use of panel data from Thailand FDI inflows by source country, allowing us to determine the temporal evolution of groups of countries rather than analyzing the temporal behavior of each of them.…”

Potential and Challenges of Chinese Direct Investment into ASEAN

“…While there is considerable literature on both China's outward direct investment [3][4][5][6][7] and inward FDI in ASEAN [8][9][10][11], there is few studies addressing the small CODI in ASEAN. The lack of research on CODI in ASEAN hinders researchers and policy makers from understanding China's outward direct investment policy evolution, and Chinese firms' go ASEAN strategies.…”