Trajectory Prediction for Barge Buffalo 292 Spill

Abstract

The oil spill trajectory prediction for the barge Buffalo 292 spill was provided by NOAA and TGLO. The bulk of the 5000 barrels of IFO 380 that was leaked moved rapidly through the Galveston Channel entrance and into the Gulf of Mexico as a result of a strong meteorological event. Because of the nature of the product, it was possible to track the resulting slicks for more than 3 weeks. Initially, the oil trailed east away from shore. Changing winds and currents moved the oil south and west, leading to sporadic impacts along the shore from east of Galveston to south of Corpus Christi. Trajectory forecasts were used to alert response personnel of impending beach impacts and to direct offshore skimming operations. Real-time current and wind meters, oil-tracking drifters, visual overflights, and remote-sensing observations provided an unusual amount of calibrating data for trajectory forecasting. This fact, along with detailed analysis assisted by computer models, allowed for a surprisingly high degree of accuracy in trajectory prediction in spite of complex current and wind patterns and changing wind drift factors for the product as it weathered. In this paper, these favorable results are compared with results of an earlier spill in the region where fewer resources were available for trajectory analysis.

Ten Years of Realtime, Near-Surface Current Observations Supporting Oil Spill Response1

“…The cause of this buoy sinking in the first place (an inadequate mooring design) has since been redesigned to allow the buoys to survive 30-foot seas and 100-knot winds. (Lehr et al, 1997;Martin et al, 1997;Guinasso et al, 2001). Working closely together, TGLO's and NOAA's trajectory modelers determined that the downcoast flow would hold for many more days taking the oil to the southwest and away from Sabine Pass.…”

“…On 16 February 1995, an impact was reported along 18 miles of beach on Matagorda Island. Fingerprinted samples revealed that the impact to Matagorda Island was very likely the same product spilled by the M/V Berge Banker almost two weeks earlier (Lehr et al, 1997). A lack of current measurements off the Texas coast had severely limited the response community's ability to predict the landfall of the product.…”