Trajectories of Ethnoracial Diversity in American Communities, 1980–2010

Abstract

The ethnoracial makeup of the U.S. population has undergone transformative change during recent decades, with the non-Hispanic white share of the population shrinking while the minority shares expand. Yet this trend toward greater racial diversity is not universal throughout the nation. Here we propose a framework of segmented change, which incorporates both spatial assimilation and ethnic stratification theories, to better understand variation in patterns of diversification across American communities. Our research applies growth mixture models to decennial census data on places for the 1980–2010 period, finding that trajectories of ethnoracial diversity are much more uneven than popularly claimed. Moreover, types of diversity change are stratified by initial racial composition. While places with mostly-white populations in 1980 underwent extensive diversification, places with larger shares of Hispanics and (especially) blacks in 1980 exhibited less uniform movement toward diversity and were more likely to remain racially homogeneous. Analysis of the underlying group-specific pathways of change indicates that the diversification of white communities was driven largely by Hispanic growth; when areas with a black presence did diversify, it occurred via contracting white populations. These racially conditioned and locally variable patterns emphasize the segmented nature of diversity change in American society.

Together but Apart: Do US Whites Live in Racially Diverse Cities and Neighborhoods?

“…Hall et al. () showed that, since 1980, all‐white places have experienced the most extensive diversification, which represents a stark contrast to preferences among most whites for living in all‐white or mostly white settings (Emerson, Chai, and Yancey ). Whether some segments of the white population have shifted their residential preferences in favor of more racially inclusive communities is unclear…”

State-level changes in US racial and ethnic diversity, 1980 to 2015: A universal trend?

“…Despite such consequences, far more attention has been devoted to the ethnoracial diversity of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, places, and neighborhoods (Farrell and Lee 2011; Hall, Tach, and Lee 2016; Logan and Zhang 2010; Parisi, Lichter, and Taquino 2015) than of states. The scant literature on state diversity that exists often fails to conceptualize diversity in careful fashion or to track it over an extended period (Arreola 2004; Brewer and Suchan 2001; Bump, Lowell, and Pettersen 2005; for an exception, see Wright et al 2014).…”

The Contributions of Places to Metropolitan Ethnoracial Diversity and Segregation: Decomposing Change Across Space and Time

“…How to improve upon mean values remains an open question despite recognition that metropolises and the places within them exhibit a range of trajectories over time (Bader and Warkentien 2016; Hall et al 2016; Lee and Hughes 2016; Reardon et al 2009). Johnston and his associates (2010:93) specifically called out the “absence of any indication of variation” as a major limitation of single-measure studies of segregation.…”

“…This range of possible pathways leads us to adopt a segmented change framework (Hall et al 2016). Based on Portes and Zhou’s (1993) segmented assimilation model, the framework proposes that the experiences of places and immigrant-rich minority groups are intertwined.…”