Trait-based prediction of extinction risk across terrestrial taxa

Chichorro, Filipe; Urbano, Fernando; Teixeira, Dinarte; Väre, Henry; Pinto, Tiago; Brummitt, Neil; He, Xiaolan; Hochkirch, Axel; Hyvönen, Jaakko; Kaila, Lauri; Juslén, Aino; Cardoso, Pedro

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2022.109738

Cited by 36 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…To investigate the relationship between species-level traits, cultural factors and scientific and popular interest, we selected a set of candidate variables hypothesized to relate to species morphology, ecology and scientific and societal preferences of humans. Extracting comparable traits across distantly related taxa is challenging (Chichorro et al, 2022; Palacio et al, 2022; Weiss and Ray, 2019), thus we restricted the analysis to a small number of scalable traits and kept trait resolution low (i.e., we scored most traits as categorical variables rather than on continuous scales). Importantly, to ensure cross-taxon comparability of traits, we made specific decisions on how to score traits for the different organisms (details of decisions made and sources of traits are provided in Appendix 1).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers of species knowledge across the Tree of Life

Mammola

Adamo

Antić

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Knowledge of biodiversity is unevenly distributed across the Tree of Life. In the long run, such disparity in awareness unbalances our understanding of life on Earth, influencing policy decisions and the allocation of research and conservation funding. We investigated how humans accumulate knowledge of biodiversity by searching for consistent relationships between scientific (number of publications) and societal (number of views in Wikipedia) interest, and species-level morphological, ecological and socio-cultural factors. Across a random selection of 3,007 species spanning 29 Phyla/Divisions, we show that socio-cultural factors are the most important correlates of scientific and societal interest in biodiversity, including the fact that a species is useful or harmful to humans, has a common name and is listed in the IUCN Red List. Furthermore, large-bodied, broadly distributed and taxonomically unique species receive more scientific and societal attention, whereas colorfulness and phylogenetic proximity to humans correlates exclusively with societal attention. These results highlight a favoritism towards limited branches of the Tree of Life, and that scientific and societal priorities in biodiversity research broadly align. This suggests that we may be missing out on key species in our research and conservation agenda simply because they are not on our cultural radar.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers of species knowledge across the Tree of Life

Mammola

Adamo

Antić

et al. 2023

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…Species' traits have been demonstrated to be associated with changes in species' ranges over time and in the relative risk of decline (Keinath et al 2017) or extinction (Fagan et al 2001;Chichorro et al 2019Chichorro et al , 2022. We used our chosen traits (range size, range-wide mean temperature, wingspan, host plant family breadth, overwintering life-stage, and disturbance tolerance) to examine if any were associated with expected mean occupancy shifts from the 1970s to 2010s.…”

Section: Post-hoc Trait Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Rising minimum temperatures contribute to 50 years of shifting Arctic and boreal butterfly communities in North America

Shirey

Neupane

Guralnick

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Global climate change has been identified as a major driver of observed insect declines, yet in many regions there are critical knowledge gaps for how communities are responding to climate. Poleward regions are of particular interest because warming is most rapid while biodiversity data are most sparse. Building on recent advances in occupancy modeling of presence-only data, we reconstructed 50 years (1970-2019) of butterfly population trends in response to rising minimum temperatures in one of the most under sampled regions of the continent. Among 90 modeled species, we found that cold-adapted species are far more often in decline compared to their warm-adapted, more southerly distributed counterparts. Further, in a post-hoc analysis using species' traits, we find that species' range-wide average annual temperature and wingspan are a consistent predictor of occupancy changes. Species with warmer ranges and larger wingspans were most likely to be increasing in occupancy. Our results provide the first look at macroscale butterfly biodiversity shifts in a critically under sampled region of North America. Further, these results highlight the potential of leveraging the wealth of presence only data, the most abundant source of historical insect biodiversity. New approaches to the modeling of presence only data will match recent increases in community science participation with sparse historical records to reconstruct trends even in poorly sampled regions.

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“…Previous studies have shown that phenotypic traits affect a species' susceptibility to extinction [1]. Physical traits such as large body size and life-history traits such as long generation lengths have been associated with increased risk of extinction in some clades [2–12]. These findings match expectations that lower population densities and increased hunting pressures put larger species disproportionately at risk and expectations that species with longer life histories have less time to adapt to environmental changes [3–5,13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In recent years, improved methods for imputing missing data have become available, creating opportunities to reduce the number of missing data points in analyses of extinction risk (e.g. [12,26]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Explaining the primate extinction crisis: predictors of extinction risk and active threats

Creighton,

Nunn

2023

Proc. R. Soc. B.

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Explaining why some species are disproportionately impacted by the extinction crisis is of critical importance for conservation biology as a science and for proactively protecting species that are likely to become threatened in the future. Using the most current data on threat status, population trends, and threat types for 446 primate species, we advance previous research on the determinants of extinction risk by including a wider array of phenotypic traits as predictors, filling gaps in these trait data using multiple imputation, and investigating the mechanisms that connect organismal traits to extinction risk. Our Bayesian phylogenetically controlled analyses reveal that insular species exhibit higher threat status, while those that are more omnivorous and live in larger groups have lower threat status. The same traits are not linked to risk when repeating our analyses with older IUCN data, which may suggest that the traits influencing species risk are changing as anthropogenic effects continue to transform natural landscapes. We also show that non-insular, larger-bodied, and arboreal species are more susceptible to key threats responsible for primate population declines. Collectively, these results provide new insights to the determinants of primate extinction and identify the mechanisms (i.e. threats) that link traits to extinction risk.

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Trait-based prediction of extinction risk across terrestrial taxa

Cited by 36 publications

References 59 publications

Drivers of species knowledge across the Tree of Life

Drivers of species knowledge across the Tree of Life

Rising minimum temperatures contribute to 50 years of shifting Arctic and boreal butterfly communities in North America

Explaining the primate extinction crisis: predictors of extinction risk and active threats

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