Train timetable design under elastic passenger demand

Abstract

A passenger centric timetable is such a timetable that the satisfaction of the passengers is maximized. However, these timetables only maximize the probability of a passenger to take the train, but provide no insight on the actual choices of the passengers. Therefore, in this manuscript we replace the deterministic passenger satisfaction function with a probabilistic demand forecasting model inside of the passenger centric train timetable design. The actual forecasts lead to a realistic train occupation. Knowing the train occupation, we can estimate the revenue and to use pricing as a mobility management to further improve the level-of-service. We use a logit model that we calibrate to reflect the known demand elasticities. We further include a competing operator as an opt-out option for the passengers. Subsequently, we integrate the passenger centric train timetabling problem with a ticket pricing problem. We solve the elastic passenger centric train timetabling problem for various types of timetables using a simulated annealing heuristic on a case study of Israeli Railways. The results of our case study show that the generated revenues can be increased by up to 15% when taking into account the passengers' behavior along with a specific pricing scheme. This study further confirms the advantages of hybrid cyclicity.

Passengers’ Demand Characteristics Experimental Analysis of EMU Trains with Sleeping Cars in Northwest China

“…Passenger demand data are often obtained by applying the stated preference (SP) survey method and the revealed preference (RP) survey method [24,25]. The results of passenger demand characteristics are usually used to predict future passenger demand [26] or design better passenger transport products [27][28][29][30]. EMU trains with sleeping cars are one of the passenger transport products on high-speed railways, and this kind of train currently operates in China.…”

Hybrid Demand‐Driven and Cyclic Timetabling Considering Rolling Stock Circulation for a Bidirectional Railway Line

“…Robenek et al. () proposed the Elastic Passenger Centric Train Timetabling Problem (EPCTTP) model with the objective of maximizing the train operating company's revenue. It was solved using a simulated annealing heuristic, and cyclic, noncyclic, and hybrid cyclic timetables could be designed.…”

A Timetable Optimization Model for Urban Rail Transit with Express/Local Mode

“…e last category concentrates on other factors to establish the optimization model, e.g., Robenek et al [17] established a timetable optimization model under elastic passenger demand. e model considered the actual choices of the passengers.…”