Traditional Beliefs and Electoral Behavior in Indonesia

Abstract

While several studies on the issue have shown that traditional beliefs affect people's political behavior and preferences, very little attention has been paid to how traditional beliefs influence electoral behavior. The only study that has attempted to link traditional beliefs and electoral behavior has done so by analyzing the case of Togo where the party system has been traditionally fairly stable and unfragmented. The case of Indonesia, on the other hand, has undergone significant changes since the end of the Orde Baru, and what was once a fairly unfragmented party system now displays high levels of fragmentation. Hence, it is particularly interesting to explore how the presence/diffusion of traditional beliefs shapes the voters’ choices in a changing, increasingly fragmented, democratizing political system. Moreover, in reviewing the literature on Indonesian elections, we find that, first, the study of electoral behavior in Indonesia has made little effort to employ existing theoretical frameworks; second, quantitative studies are scarce; and third, there are practically no micro-level quantitative studies on electoral behavior. In this article, we assess whether and to what extent the electoral choice of a voter is affected by whether and to what extent they hold on to traditional beliefs by performing statistical analyses of original survey data. We find that voters with a traditional mindset are more likely to vote for the secular parties in the ruling coalition than voters who do not hold traditional beliefs.

Traditional Beliefs and Electoral Behavior

“…show in this special issue that Muslim voters with a traditional mindset are less supportive of democratic rule than those Muslim voters who have a less traditional mindset. If the key conclusion of our article is that traditional beliefs affect voters' electoral behavior, then we can say that the evidence generated by Harakan, Pelizzo, and Kuzenbayev (2023), also in this special issue, largely sustains this claim. Yet, once we try see the ways in which traditional beliefs shape electoral behavior, we find that there are some cross-national differences.…”

“…If voters were given a wider set of viable options, they might vote differently. Yet, the evidence that Harakan, Pelizzo, and Kuzenbayev (2023) have presented in this special issue with regard to the Indonesian case and the evidence pertaining to Benin raise some doubts as to how compelling this objection may actually be. The party system in Benin and Indonesia is considerably more competitive than it is in Togo or, for that matter, in Tanzania-and yet the evidence we presented above and the evidence presented by Harakan, Pelizzo, and Kuzenbayev (2023) also in this special issue shows consistently that traditionally minded voters are more inclined to vote for government parties even in countries where the inter-party competition is more competitive.…”

Traditional Practices and Support for the Strongman

“…The evidence presented by Pelizzo, Turganov, and Kuzenbayev (2023) in this special issue of World Affairs sustains the claim that socioeconomic development transforms values and attitudes, but it also shows that some values/attitudes are more sensitive to socioeconomic development than others. Also in this special issue, Harakan, Pelizzo, and Kuzenbayev (2023) show that the presence/pervasiveness of traditional beliefs and practices shapes the electoral behavior and choices of Indonesian voters. Muslim voters with a more traditional mindset are more likely to vote for secular government parties-a finding that does not simply illustrate the electoral consequences of traditional beliefs, but that also substantiates the claim that at times traditional beliefs and religion are at odds with one another.…”

Note From the Editor

“…Moreover, many of the findings presented across the articles in this special issue do not merely apply to, or stem from, “traditional” societies in the contemporary world. Several of the articles draw empirically from case studies in the Global South (Pelizzo et al 2023; Pelizzo and Kuzenbayev 2023 a ), notably Indonesia (Harakan et al 2023) and Togo (Pelizzo et al 2023). However, the key political consequences of traditional beliefs in certain industrially advanced societies of the Global North are also subjected to initial exploration.…”