Trading carbon, biodiversity, and livelihoods: a landscape scale analysis of ecosystems services and trade-offs in land-use policy

Abstract

Conservation and economic paradigms are shifting in recognition of the interdependencies among environmental, economic, and social systems. This shift is changing philosophies on why, where, and how we conserve nature. In this thesis I develop and apply novel approaches to plan for diverse objectives with the goal of enhancing the effectiveness, efficiency, and equitability of landscape management for multiple stakeholders.Forest carbon policy epitomises the challenges of interdependent environmental, economic, and social concerns. The ideals of REDD+ are inherently appealing, but in practice it presents a minefield of vagaries, unintended consequences, and trade-offs. Current forest-carbon policy fails to reflect the multiplicit social values of different management actions. As a solution, in chapter 2 I propose a policy framework that distinguishes distinct outcomes, promotes more effective incentives by better reflecting and leveraging from stakeholder values, and allows faster adaptation of policy to an uncertain future.Chapters 3-7 of my thesis develop a case study in a REDD+ priority region, the Ex-Mega Rice Project (EMRP) of Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Restoration and development of the EMRP is of global interest due to substantial carbon emissions from degraded peatland, charismatic biodiversity, and a rapidly developing palm-oil industry. Understanding spatial distributions of environmental values is needed for their sustainable management. However, different stakeholders often perceive these values in different ways. In chapter 3, I explore the carbon, biodiversity, and development implications of seven proxies for carbon dynamics. I find above-ground biomass is not an adequate surrogate for emission dynamics, and current regulation limiting development on peatland may fail to incentivise peatland restoration. My results highlight that the most appropriate carbon proxy may not be the most accurate one, but rather the one that best incentivizes positive actions in suitable locations.REDD+ landscapes need to be managed for multiple social, economic, and environmental goals.In chapter 4 I quantify and map key policy-relevant ecosystem-service values, and evaluate the expected outcomes of four future land-use scenarios in the EMRP. I find that the prospective landuse plans will be considerable improvements on current land use, but identify several potential trade-offs. For example, oil-palm development may push smallholder agriculture into lowproductivity areas, and negatively impact biodiversity and carbon outcomes. This highlights that for effective, efficient, and equitable management these local-scale trade-offs will need to be carefully considered in future land-use planning for the EMRP.Estimating potential outcomes of different land-use policies can highlight where we may anticipate conflicts. Land-sharing and land-sparing strategies are embodied in agricultural and iii environmental policies currently applied in landscapes worldwide, and their relative benefits and shortcomings have rece...