Trade uncertainty, income, and democracy

Tian, Juan; Sim, Nicholas; Yan, Wen; Li, Yanyun

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2020.04.022

Cited by 6 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…show that non-gravity trade is negatively linked to corruption and it is robust against various identification strategies and measures of corruption. The potential mechanism is that non-gravity trade of a country affects firm's income (Brueckner, Long & Vespignani, 2020;Tian et al, 2020), and the increased income level in turn deters corruption. The present study therefore mainly contributes to the literature by providing a new perspective on the determinants of corruption and identifying that the nonfundamental driven trade can deter corruption at firm level in the developing countries.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We construct this indicator at the firm-level in three steps. First, non-gravity trade between home and foreign countries is estimated as the residual of a traditional gravity model ( Brueckner, Long & Vespignani, 2020;Tian et al, 2020). Second, based on the derived residuals, we compute the country level non-gravity trade as a weighted average taking trade shares as weights.…”

Section: Non-gravity Tradementioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this paper, we apply this methodology in a gravity equation following Head et al (2010). Non-gravity trade is constructed as the residual of a gravity equation (Brueckner, Long & Vespignani, 2020;Tian et al, 2020) The coefficients 1 to 8 are parameters to be estimated, and is an error term. Following the definition of non-gravity trade, the residual (̂) on the estimates of equation ( 2) is our interested variable.…”

Section: Non-gravity Tradementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Following the definition of non-gravity trade, the residual (̂) on the estimates of equation ( 2) is our interested variable. Thus, non-gravity trade is the variation of the log of bilateral trade/nominal GDP that cannot be explained by variables that the trade literature has found to be significant determinants of trade (Brueckner, Long & Vespignani, 2020;Tian et al, 2020).…”

Section: Non-gravity Tradementioning

confidence: 99%

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Explaining corruption: How do firms respond to non-gravity trade in developing countries?

Hu¹,

Yan²

2021

Preprint

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There has been limited effort to explore whether non-gravity trade, as not driven by standard variables entering an augmented gravity model, matters for firms’ corruption. To fill this gap, this paper explores the effect of non-gravity trade on firms’ corruption in 141 developing countries during the period 2006–2017. Our results show that non-gravity trade does matter for the firms’ corruption behavior. Specifically, we find that firms’ corruption decreases by 0.09–0.23% following a unit increase in non-gravity trade (e.g. 19.7 million dollars’ increase in real trade), and the effect is much larger during the world financial crisis period. The result is robust to exploiting conditional heteroskedasticity for identification, constructing a Bartik-type instrument variable, applying different econometric technics, and using alternative measures of firm corruption.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Non-gravity Tradementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Non-gravity Tradementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Non-gravity Tradementioning

confidence: 99%

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Explaining corruption: How do firms respond to non-gravity trade in developing countries?

Hu¹,

Yan²

2021

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…There is a fairly large number of peer-reviewed studies considering trade policy about uncertainty risk (Tian et al, 2020;Imbruno, 2020;Song et al, 2019;Zhou, Chen & Chen, 2019). But most of them relate to considering the uncertainty risk in sociocultural (Imbruno, 2020), political (Tian et al, 2020), and knowledge environments (Song et al, 2019) and their impact on global value chains (Zhou, Chen & Chen, 2019). However, it should be noted that these studies were based mainly only on identifying the types of risks of uncertainty and their nature of influence (Imbruno, 2020).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact assessment of the COVID19 on trade between Eastern Europe and China

Megits

Нескородєва²,

Schuster

2020

JEECAR

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The high-risk of the rapidly spreading COVID-19 virus worldwide created a necessity for developing a diagnostic tool designed to predict economic development, considering the risks of spreading the coronavirus epidemic. In the proposed research, China is selected strategically due to the U.S. "Buy American" trade policy. Also, the European Union presents various trade barriers for countries of Eastern Europe. The risk-versus-economic efficiency study is performed based on Fibonacci law utilizing trade-dynamic indicators with incorporating the SIR-model used to predict the dynamics of COVID-19 cases in the region. The research was performed based on data collected for the period of March-July 2020. As a result, a scientific model to predict the dynamics of trade volume between China and selected Eastern European countries is developed. The results obtained have a practical application and can be used for government institutions and economic agencies to determine their nation's short- and long-term international trade strategy.

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How does inter-provincial trade promote economic growth? Empirical evidence from Chinese provinces

Ji,

Shan,

Yin

2024

Humanit Soc Sci Commun

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In the face of complex domestic and international situations, the influence of domestic trade on economic growth has been paid more and more attention by the academic community while we still know little about its internal mechanism. From the perspective of China's interprovincial trade, based on the panel data of 29 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China from 2000 to 2021, this paper studies the impact of inter-provincial trade on economic growth by using a two-way fixed effects model. It is found that inter-provincial trade has a significant positive effect on economic growth, and each 1% increase in interprovincial trade will increase per capita GDP by 0.19%. Furthermore, inter-provincial trade positively affects economic growth through the effect of technology improvement and industrial structure upgrading. However, the two mechanisms are heterogeneous in the eastern, central, and western regions. Among them, the technology improvement mechanism is only established in the central and western regions and the industrial structure upgrading mechanism is only established in the eastern and central regions. Finally, we suggest that governments should formulate targeted development goals and plans according to the actual situation of each region, to ensure that inter-provincial trade can play a full role in promoting economic growth.

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Trade uncertainty, income, and democracy

Cited by 6 publications

References 49 publications

Explaining corruption: How do firms respond to non-gravity trade in developing countries?

Explaining corruption: How do firms respond to non-gravity trade in developing countries?

Impact assessment of the COVID19 on trade between Eastern Europe and China

How does inter-provincial trade promote economic growth? Empirical evidence from Chinese provinces

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