Trade Uncertainty and Investment in the Euro Area

Ebeke, Christian; Siminitz, Jesse

doi:10.5089/9781484388808.001

Cited by 14 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 9 publications

(11 reference statements)

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“…Thus, lowering the uncertainty brought about by trade costs would result in greater investment in the export sector and higher expected trade volume (e.g., Limão and Maggi, 2015). In connection to this, many studies have shown that trade uncertainty undermines private investment (e.g., Ebeke and Siminitz, 2018;Limão, 2015, 2022;Novy and Taylor, 2020). Tajaddini and Gholipour (2021) have provided empirical evidence that higher levels of economic uncertainty have negative effects on the new business formation.…”

Section: Trade Costs Raise Uncertainty and Could Adversely Affect Hou...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of AfT flows on Investment-Oriented Remittances flows

GNANGNON

2022

Preprint

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Despite the voluminous literature on the effect of Aid for Trade (AfT) flows on recipient countries' trade performance, little is known about the relationship between AfT flows and other capital flows to developing countries. This paper contributes to the literature by exploring the effect of AfT inflows on investment-oriented remittances inflows, notably through the channel of trade costs. Using an unbalanced panel dataset of 106 countries over the period 2002–2019, and the two-step system generalized method of moments, the empirical analysis has established several outcomes. AfT flows exert a positive effect on investment-oriented remittances flows, with the magnitude of this positive effect being higher in Least developed countries than in other countries, and in remittance-dependent countries. AfT flows stimulate investment-oriented remittances flows in countries that face higher trade costs. Finally, total AfT flows reduce investment-oriented remittances flows in countries that experience a higher volatility of the overall trade costs, but boost investment-oriented remittances in countries that improve the quality of trade measures. The analysis shows that AfT flows could be an important leverage for stimulating investment-oriented remittances flows, and promote the development of the private sector in beneficiary countries.

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Section: Trade Costs Raise Uncertainty and Could Adversely Affect Hou...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of AfT flows on Investment-Oriented Remittances flows

GNANGNON

2022

Preprint

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“…As background for the March 2017 Meeting of G20 Sherpas, the World Bank, the WTO, and the Fund presented "Making in the euro area (Ebeke and others, 2018); and the impacts of the Trans-Pacific Partnership on Latin America and the Caribbean (Cerdeiro, 2016).…”

Section: Regional Surveillancementioning

confidence: 99%

IEO Evaluation Report

2020

Independent Evaluation Office Reports

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This report updates the 2009 IEO evaluation of IMF Involvement in International Trade Policy Issues. Since then, the composition and structure of international trade have evolved, but trade has not regained its former dynamism. With increasing concern about potential winners and losers from trade, there has been a loss of political support for globalization, increasing trade tensions and protectionism, and the institutional framework supporting multilateral trade has come under heavy strain. The report concludes that overall the IMF deserves considerable credit for its active and timely response, playing a prominent role in championing commitment to an open, rules-based multilateral trading system. The Fund has largely implemented the recommendations of the 2009 evaluation and has strengthened and consolidated its trade policy analysis and advice, appropriately focusing on the key macroeconomic effects and associated risks of trade policy developments at the national and international levels. IMF advocacy on trade has been underpinned by a major expansion in the attention to trade policy issues in multilateral surveillance—and to some extent in bilateral surveillance—supported by high-quality research and analysis, building on the Fund’s well-established modeling capacity. Looking forward, the Fund will need to sustain its current high level of advocacy and analysis on trade policy issues and consider how to increase the overall impact of this work. Key challenges include: contributing to foster a recommitment to trade policy cooperation; further attention to translating multilateral surveillance into bilateral policy advice; consolidating relations with partner institutions; and increased attention to rapidly developing trade policy issues. Across all these dimensions, care will be needed to ensure appropriate evenhandedness in trade policy surveillance across countries. A holistic review of the IMF’s “trade strategy” would help to guide trade policy work and the allocation of scarce resources among competing priorities.

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“…Hlatshwayo (2018) unpacks policy uncertainty by type of policy to distinguish generic, fiscal, monetary and trade policy uncertainty. Utilizing the latter index, Ebeke and Siminitz (2018) find an average decline of 0.8 percentage points in the investment-to-GDP ratio for five quarters following a one-standard-deviation increase in the level of trade uncertainty. Ahir et al (2018) develop a world uncertainty (WU) index that captures uncertainty related to economic and political developments in the short and long run.…”

Section: Literature On Policy Uncertainty and Tradementioning

confidence: 99%

Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Global Value Chains: Some Facts, Many Questions

Constantinescu¹,

Mattoo

Ruta

2019

SSRN Journal

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The Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, created in 1992 and currently directed by Professor Brigid Laffan, aims to develop inter-disciplinary and comparative research on the major issues facing the process of European integration, European societies and Europe's place in 21 st century global politics.The Centre is home to a large post-doctoral programme and hosts major research programmes, projects and data sets, in addition to a range of working groups and ad hoc initiatives. The research agenda is organised around a set of core themes and is continuously evolving, reflecting the changing agenda of European integration, the expanding membership of the European Union, developments in Europe's neighbourhood and the wider world.For more information: http://eui.eu/rscasThe EUI and the RSCAS are not responsible for the opinion expressed by the author(s).

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Trade Uncertainty and Investment in the Euro Area

Cited by 14 publications

References 9 publications

Effect of AfT flows on Investment-Oriented Remittances flows

Effect of AfT flows on Investment-Oriented Remittances flows

IEO Evaluation Report

Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Global Value Chains: Some Facts, Many Questions

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