Trade Liberalization and Mortality: Evidence from U.S. Counties

Pierce, Justin; Schott, Peter K.

doi:10.3386/w22849

Cited by 109 publications

(83 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…At the aggregate level, unemployment cannot explain the mortality turnarounds in the post-2000 period; unemployment had recovered its pre-recession level by the end of the period, and was falling rapidly as mortality rose. It is of course possible that the aggregate is misleading, either because unemployment excludes discouraged workers, or because unemployment has not recovered in the places where unemployment prompted mortality; see Pierce and Schott (2016) and Autor et al (2017) for evidence linking mortality to trade-induced unemployment.…”

Section: Mortality and Incomesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mortality and Morbidity in the 21st Century

Case

Deaton

2017

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity

1,043

815

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SUMMARYWe build on and extend the findings in Case and Deaton (2015) on increases in mortality and morbidity among white non-Hispanic Americans in midlife since the turn of the century. Increases in all-cause mortality continued unabated to 2015, with additional increases in drug overdoses, suicides, and alcohol-related liver mortality, particularly among those with a high-school degree or less. The decline in mortality from heart disease has slowed and, most recently, stopped, and this combined with the three other causes is responsible for the increase in all-cause mortality. Not only are educational differences in mortality among whites increasing, but from 1998 to 2015 mortality rose for those without, and fell for those with, a college degree. This is true for nonHispanic white men and women in all five year age groups from 35-39 through 55-59. Mortality rates among blacks and Hispanics continued to fall; in 1999, the mortality rate of white nonHispanics aged 50-54 with only a high-school degree was 30 percent lower than the mortality rate of blacks in the same age group but irrespective of education; by 2015, it was 30 percent higher.There are similar crossovers in all age groups from 25-29 to 60-64.Mortality rates in comparable rich countries have continued their pre-millennial fall at the rates that used to characterize the US. In contrast to the US, mortality rates in Europe are falling for those with low levels of educational attainment, and have fallen further over this period than mortality rates for those with higher levels of education.Many commentators have suggested that poor mortality outcomes can be attributed to contemporaneous levels of resources, particularly to slowly growing, stagnant, and even declining incomes; we evaluate this possibility, but find that it cannot provide a comprehensive explanation. In particular, the income profiles for blacks and Hispanics, whose mortality rates have fallen, are no better than those for whites. Nor is there any evidence in the European data that mortality trends match income trends, in spite of sharply different patterns of median income across countries after the Great Recession.We propose a preliminary but plausible story in which cumulative disadvantage from one birth cohort to the next, in the labor market, in marriage and child outcomes, and in health, is triggered by progressively worsening labor market opportunities at the time of entry for whites with low levels of education. This account, which fits much of the data, has the profoundly negative A data appendix and a zipped archive of all programs used to create the figures and tables in this paper are is available at https:// www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/mortality-and-morbidity-in-the-21st-century/ HHS Public Access Author Manuscript Author ManuscriptAuthor ManuscriptAuthor Manuscript implication that policies, even ones that successfully improve earnings and jobs, or redistribute income, will take many years to reverse the mortality and morbidity increase, and that those in midlife now a...

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Section: Mortality and Incomesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mortality and Morbidity in the 21st Century

Case

Deaton

2017

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity

1,043

815

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“…show that commuting zones with industrial structures more similar to U.S. imports from China experienced greater declines in manufacturing employment. Beyond manufacturing employment, Pierce and Schott (2015) show that counties more exposed to PNTR experience both relatively higher levels of unemployment and lower levels of …”

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confidence: 99%

Does Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S. Elections?

Che

Pierce

et al. 2016

FEDS

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This paper examines the impact of trade liberalization on U.S. Congressional elections. We nd that U.S. counties subject to greater competition from China via a change in U.S. trade policy exhibit relative increases in turnout, the share of votes cast for Democrats and the probability that the county is represented by a Democrat. We nd that these changes are consistent with Democrats in oce during the period examined being more likely than Republicans to support legislation limiting import competition or favoring economic assistance. (JEL Codes:

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“…69 We can regress this counterfactual skill change on the Bartik employment shock and the other controls in equation (1) to understand how much of the total responsiveness is attributed to a response in the within rm-MSA skill requirement. …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Do Recessions Accelerate Routine-Biased Technological Change? Evidence from Vacancy Postings

Hershbein

Kahn

2016

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We show that skill requirements in job vacancy postings differentially increased in MSAs that were hit hard by the Great Recession, relative to less hard-hit areas. These increases persist through at least the end of 2015 and are correlated with increases in capital investments, both at the MSA and firm-levels. We also find that effects are most pronounced in routine-cognitive occupations, which exhibit relative wage growth as well. We argue that this evidence is consistent with the restructuring of production toward routine-biased technologies and the moreskilled workers that complement them, and that the Great Recession accelerated this process.

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Trade Liberalization and Mortality: Evidence from U.S. Counties

Cited by 109 publications

References 19 publications

Mortality and Morbidity in the 21st Century

Mortality and Morbidity in the 21st Century

Does Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S. Elections?

Do Recessions Accelerate Routine-Biased Technological Change? Evidence from Vacancy Postings

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