Trade Elasticity and Vertical Specialisation

Buono, Inés; Caffarelli, Filippo Vergara

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2293896

Cited by 32 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 122 publications

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“…11 A second strand of the literature argues that the change in the relationship is mainly cyclical, e.g. Boz et al (2014), who suggest that most of the decline in trade is explained by cyclical 10 Note that their definition of cyclical vs. structural factors is different to ours, as it refers to long vs. short-run properties of their country-speficic error correction models. A particular sub-section is devoted to this issue (Sect.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

“…We revisit world trade elasticities under an import demand function framework, for which the excellent work of Constantinescu et al (2015) provided a useful but incomplete assessment, as they acknowledge: "while we cannot directly test the relative importance of these factors, we provide some circumstantial evidence on how far each might have contributed to the observed slowdown". 10 As a matter of fact, many of their arguments have been addressed more formally in the papers that we review below.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Breaking Down World Trade Elasticities: A Panel ECM Approach

Martínez-Martin

2016

SSRN Journal

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The Working Paper Series seeks to disseminate original research in economics and fi nance. All papers have been anonymously refereed. By publishing these papers, the Banco de España aims to contribute to economic analysis and, in particular, to knowledge of the Spanish economy and its international environment.The opinions and analyses in the Working Paper Series are the responsibility of the authors and, therefore, do not necessarily coincide with those of the Banco de España or the Eurosystem.The Banco de España disseminates its main reports and most of its publications via the Internet at the following website: http://www.bde.es.Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Breaking Down World Trade Elasticities: A Panel ECM Approach

Martínez-Martin

2016

SSRN Journal

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“…The literature on the trade collapse discussed several mechanisms through which vertical specialization may increase the short-term responsiveness of trade to GDP -e.g. if expenditure declines more in vertically specialized sectors (Bems et al, 2011), if there are inventory -also called bullwhip-effects (Altomonte et al, 2012), or if there is re-nationalization of production chains (Buono and Vergara-Caffarelli, 2013).…”

Section: Changes In Vertical Specializationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?

Constantinescu¹,

Mattoo²,

Ruta³

2018

The World Bank Economic Review

131

113

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This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. We use a simple empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s, even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow GDP growth, but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that a key driver of structural change over the 2000s is the slowing pace of international vertical specialization, which accounts for between one-quarter and one-half of the decline in import growth from the 1990s to the 2000s.

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Section: Changes In Vertical Specializationmentioning

confidence: 51%

The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?

Constantinescu¹,

Mattoo²,

Ruta³

2015

Policy Research Working Papers

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The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

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Trade Elasticity and Vertical Specialisation

Cited by 32 publications

References 122 publications

Breaking Down World Trade Elasticities: A Panel ECM Approach

Breaking Down World Trade Elasticities: A Panel ECM Approach

The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?

The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?

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