Trade Dynamics and Industrial Evolution: A Comprehensive Time Series Analysis of Turkey s Import-Export Trends and Manufacturing Growth (1923-2013)

Abstract

This study provides a comprehensive temporal analysis of Turkey's economic progression, focusing on its trade dynamics and manufacturing sector from 1923 to 2013. Utilizing time series analysis, we first delve into Turkey's import and export trends, observing a robust upward trajectory suggestive of sustained economic growth and greater integration into global trade networks. Periodic fluctuations, potentially reflective of global economic cycles or domestic policies, were also discerned. The manufacturing metrics—spanning the number of establishments, employment figures, annual payments, and input values—similarly showcased expansion, with year-on-year growth rates offering nuanced insights into the sector's evolution. Notably, correlations revealed a strong positive relationship between the proliferation of manufacturing establishments and employment figures, while annual payments and input values moved in congruence. Stationarity checks, crucial for time series forecasting, were conducted, leading to the application of the ARIMA modeling technique for predictive analysis. The model's predictions exhibited a close alignment with actual trade values, affirming its efficacy. Overall, this study elucidates Turkey's economic journey over nine decades, emphasizing its expanding trade engagements and consistent growth in the manufacturing realm.