Trade Dependence, Uncertainty Expectations, and Sino–U.S. Political Relations

Song, Yu; Chen, Bin; Hou, Na

doi:10.1007/s11366-022-09829-9

Cited by 6 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 65 publications

(90 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…However, when bilateral political relations are unstable, energy supply and demand often experience significant fluctuations, and prices may undergo dramatic changes, which in turn affect trade volume. In studying the impact of bilateral political relations on energy trade, it is necessary to consider the stability and changes in political relations, as well as their effects on trade value (Song et al, 2022). Based on the discussion above, we can derive Hypothesis 1.Hypothesis 1: Bilateral political relations can influence the energy supply stability and trade scale, as well as affecting the energy trade value of importing, thereby influencing the security of energy imports.…”

Section: Theoretical Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Bilateral political relations and the security of China's energy imports

Tang,

Wang,

Yuan

et al. 2023

Energy Exploration & Exploitation

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

As human demand for energy continues to grow, energy security has become an important research topic for national economic and social development. As the country with the highest energy demand and import in the world, China needs to ensure its energy import security in a personal way. Against this research background, this paper investigates the causal relationship between bilateral political relations and China's energy import security. This research selected HS 6-digit percentile trade data from 47 energy-exporting countries engaged in energy trade with China from 2000 to 2020. A trade gravity model was constructed to examine the impact of bilateral political relations on China's energy import security. Multiple empirical analyses were conducted using the PPMLHDFE method to investigate various aspects of the relationship. The research shows that: (1) Bilateral political relations can significantly affect China's energy trade imports. (2) The regional security situation of exporting countries and the signing of free trade agreements with China play a moderating role between bilateral political relations and energy imports. (3) In the heterogeneity analysis, the influence of bilateral political relations on China's energy trade has obvious stage characteristics, and the influence of bilateral political relations on China's energy trade is stronger in countries and regions along the Belt and Road Initiative, and there is a certain path-dependent type of China's energy imports.

show abstract

Section: Theoretical Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Bilateral political relations and the security of China's energy imports

Tang,

Wang,

Yuan

et al. 2023

Energy Exploration & Exploitation

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

The scientific tale of the nexus between oil prices, macroeconomic uncertainty and Pakistan's exports to its major trading partners: Insights from advanced methods

Chishti

2024

Int. J Fin Econ

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The recent study aims to analyze the nonlinear dynamic effects of oil price shocks and macroeconomic uncertainty on exports. To achieve this, the study utilizes monthly data from July 2003 to December 2020 on oil prices and macroeconomic uncertainty, examining their impact on Pakistan's exports to its major trading partners. To ensure detailed and robust findings, the study employs various advanced econometric tools, including quantile unit root, cointegration, Granger causality tests, and quantile‐on‐quantile regression (QQR) and wavelet quantile correlation (WQC) techniques. The QQR and WQC estimates reveal diverse and nonlinear effects of oil price shocks and macroeconomic uncertainty on exports, reflecting the complexity of the relationship. While oil price shocks (OP) predominantly hinder exports in most cases, a significant and positive association between OP and exports is also observed. Similarly, macroeconomic uncertainty generally exhibits a significantly adverse influence on exports, but positive impacts are also evident. Furthermore, the quantile Granger causality test confirms the presence of a bidirectional causal relationship between the selected series. Based on the results mentioned above, the study argues that the effects of oil price shocks and economic uncertainty are nonlinear, diverse, and complex. As a result, the study suggests implementing phase‐wise policy recommendations to address these complexities.

show abstract

Are the Defense Policy and Military Expenditure in China Economically or Politically Driven?

Song,

Chen

2024

J OF CHIN POLIT SCI

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Trade Dependence, Uncertainty Expectations, and Sino–U.S. Political Relations

Cited by 6 publications

References 65 publications

Bilateral political relations and the security of China's energy imports

Bilateral political relations and the security of China's energy imports

The scientific tale of the nexus between oil prices, macroeconomic uncertainty and Pakistan's exports to its major trading partners: Insights from advanced methods

Are the Defense Policy and Military Expenditure in China Economically or Politically Driven?

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About