Trade Balance as a Factor of Macroeconomic Dynamics of Kazakhstan: Trends and Prospects

Abstract

The Kazakhstani economy is characterized by a high export orientation, which predetermines the significant role of foreign trade in the formation of macroeconomic trends. For a long period, foreign trade was one of the main drivers of economic development of Kazakhstan, but recently its role has been decreasing against the background of a reduction in the trade surplus consequently to a decrease in export volumes due to oil prices decline, as well as outstripping growth of import. The contraction in the trade surplus puts pressure on the current account of the balance of payments and generates a number of problems in key areas of the economy. The factors that determine the deterioration of the situation in the country’s foreign trade, with a high degree of probability, will continue to operate in the medium term, which may lead to a further complication of the processes of socio-economic development.