Tracking machine learning models for pandemic scenarios: a systematic review of machine learning models that predict local and global evolution of pandemics

Abstract

This systematic review aims to study and classify machine learning models that predict pandemics’ evolution within affected regions or countries. The advantage of this systematic review is that it allows the health authorities to decide what prediction model fits best depending upon the region’s criticality and optimize hospitals’ approaches to preparing and anticipating patient care. We searched ACM Digital Library, Biomed Central, BioRxiv+MedRxiv, BMJ, Computers and Applied Sciences, IEEEXplore, JMIR Medical Informatics, Medline Daily Updates, Nature, Oxford Academic, PubMed, Sage Online, ScienceDirect, Scopus, SpringerLink, Web of Science, and Wiley Online Library between 1 January 2020 and 31 July 2022. We divided the interventions into similarities between cumulative COVID-19 real cases and machine learning prediction models’ ability to track pandemics trending. We included 45 studies that rated low to high risk of bias. The standardized mean differences (SMD) for the two groups were 0.18, 95% CI, with interval of [0.01, 0.35], =0, and p value=0.04. We built a taxonomic analysis of the included studies and determined two domains: pandemics trending prediction models and geolocation tracking models. We performed the meta-analysis and data synthesis and got low publication bias because of missing results. The level of certainty varied from very low to high. By submitting the 45 studies on the risk of bias, the levels of certainty, the summary of findings, and the statistical analysis via the forest and funnel plots assessments, we could determine the satisfactory statistical significance homogeneity across the included studies to simulate the progress of the pandemics and help the healthcare authorities to take preventive decisions.

A multistate model and its standalone tool to predict hospital and ICU occupancy by patients with COVID-19

“…Recently, machine learning and deep learning models have been applied to study the evolution of the pandemic [ [30] , [31] , [32] ]. The use of these techniques is also applied on health management and particularly on hospital occupancy, combining neural network model (NN) with a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model (SEIR) [ 33 ], or comparing Long Short-Term memory (LSTM) network, convolutional neural network (CNN) and their combination [ 34 ].…”