Tracking district-level performance in the context of achieving zero indigenous case status by 2027

Abstract

India has committed to zero indigenous malaria cases by 2027 and elimination by 2030. Of 28 states and 8 union territories of India, eleven states were targeted to reach the elimination phase by 2020. However, state-level epidemiology indicates that several states of India may not be on the optimum track, and few goals set in National Framework for Malaria Elimination (NFME) for 2020 remain to be addressed. Therefore, tracking the current progress of malaria elimination in India at the district level, and identifying districts that are off track is important in understanding possible shortfalls to malaria elimination. Annual malaria case data from 2017–20 of 686 districts of India were obtained from the National Center for Vector-Borne Diseases Control (NCVBDC) and analysed to evaluate the performance of districts to achieve zero case status by 2027. A district’s performance was evaluated by calculating the annual percentage change in the total number of malaria cases for the years 2018, 2019 and 2020 considering the previous year as a base year. The mean, median and maximum of these annual changes were then used to project the number of malaria cases in 2027. Based on these, districts were classified into four groups: 1) districts that are expected to reach zero case status by 2027, 2) districts that would achieve zero case status between 2028 and 2030, 3) districts that would arrive at zero case status after 2030, and 4) districts where malaria cases are on the rise. Analysis suggest, a cohort of fifteen districts require urgent modification or improvement in their malaria control strategies by identifying foci of infection and customizing interventions. They may also require new interventional tools that are being developed recently so that malaria case reduction over the years may be increased.