Tracing and prediction analysis of an urban pipeline leakage accident based on the catastrophe DBN model

Qiu, Zeyang; Liang, Wei; Zhang, Laibin

doi:10.1016/j.jngse.2018.07.019

Cited by 27 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Through accident trees and event trees, various risk factors were further transformed into Bayesian networks based on the six scenarios identified by scenario construction. The conversion process is shown in Figure 4 [30]. Based on the bow-tie model transformation rule, when building a Bayesian network, it is necessary to determine the fault tree generated by the liquid ammonia leakage accident firstly.…”

Section: Bn Variables Of Liquid Ammonia Leakagementioning

confidence: 99%

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The Scenario Construction and Evolution Method of Casualties in Liquid Ammonia Leakage Based on Bayesian Network

Zhao

Wang

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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In China, food-freezing plants that use liquid ammonia, which were established in the suburbs in the 1970s, are being surrounded by urban built-up areas as urbanization progresses. These plants lead to extremely serious casualties in the event of a liquid ammonia leakage. The purpose of this thesis was to explore the key factors of personnel protection failure through the scenario evolution analysis of liquid ammonia leakage. The chain of emergencies and their secondary events were used to portray the evolutionary process of a full scenario of casualties caused by liquid ammonia leakage from three dimensions: disaster, disaster-bearing bodies, and emergency management. A Bayesian network model of liquid ammonia leakage casualties based on the scenario chain was constructed, and key nodes in the network were derived by examining the sensitivity of risk factors. Then, this model was applied to a food-freezing plant in Beijing. The results showed that inadequate risk identification capability is a key node in accident prevention; the level of emergency preparedness is closely related to the degree of casualties; the emergency disposal by collaborative onsite and offsite is the key to avoiding mass casualties. A basis for emergency response to the integration of personnel protection is provided.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Bn Variables Of Liquid Ammonia Leakagementioning

confidence: 99%

The Scenario Construction and Evolution Method of Casualties in Liquid Ammonia Leakage Based on Bayesian Network

Zhao

Wang

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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“…Aiming at the above problems, the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model has certain advantages in system reliability assessment. [13][14][15] DBN model is based on Bayesian probability theory and is a powerful tool to deal with uncertain problems. At the same time, it also has a more intuitive knowledge representation, which can well show the hierarchical relationship between faults.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Aiming at the above problems, the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model has certain advantages in system reliability assessment 13–15 . DBN model is based on Bayesian probability theory and is a powerful tool to deal with uncertain problems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reliability evaluation of concrete‐filled steel tube arch bridge based on DBN‐PSOSA hybrid algorithm

Hong

et al. 2021

Structural Concrete

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When traditional response surface method is used to evaluate the reliability of concrete-filled steel tubular arch bridge, due to its complex structure and highly nonlinear implicit function, the response surface fitting accuracy is not high, and the reliability accuracy is difficult to meet the requirements of design specifications. In order to solve the above problems, this paper chooses dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN) which is suitable for solving the problem of multiple state unit or system uncertainty to build implicit function of the response surface function. And this paper combines DBN and particle swarm optimization algorithm based on simulated annealing algorithm (PSOSA) to improve efficiency of model parameter optimization. It can make the construction of implicit function simulate the real structure of the limit state function. Then this paper verifies the suitability for this kind of complex structure reliability assessment of DBN-PSOSA hybrid algorithm. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, and the reliability of a concrete filled steel tube arch bridge project is evaluated. The results show that this method improves the calculation accuracy and efficiency.

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“…, terrorism(Dinget al 2017), and urban pipeline leakage accidents(Qiu, Liang and Zhang 2018). Although the use of health data and phone location continues to raise privacy concerns(Schomakers, Lidynia and Ziefle 2019), progress has been made to develop privacy-preserving technologies to allow health data for contact tracing and epidemiological surveillance and outbreak analytics(Altuwaiyan, Hadian and Liang 2018;Anjum et al 2018).Before computational models can be considered a reliable data-driven approach for forecasting emerging pathogens, several steps in the data science of outbreak analytics should be executed.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Praemonitus praemunitus: can we forecast and prepare for future viral disease outbreaks?

Muratov¹

2022

Preprint

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Tracing and prediction analysis of an urban pipeline leakage accident based on the catastrophe DBN model

Cited by 27 publications

References 31 publications

The Scenario Construction and Evolution Method of Casualties in Liquid Ammonia Leakage Based on Bayesian Network

The Scenario Construction and Evolution Method of Casualties in Liquid Ammonia Leakage Based on Bayesian Network

Reliability evaluation of concrete‐filled steel tube arch bridge based on DBN‐PSOSA hybrid algorithm

Praemonitus praemunitus: can we forecast and prepare for future viral disease outbreaks?

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