Towards thresholds of disaster management performance under demographic change: exploring functional relationships using agent-based modeling

Abstract

Abstract. Effective disaster management is a core feature for the protection of communities against natural disasters such as floods. Disaster management organizations (DMOs) are expected to contribute to ensuring this protection. However, what happens when their resources to cope with a flood are at stake or the intensity and frequency of the event exceeds their capacities? Many cities in the Free State of Saxony, Germany, were strongly hit by several floods in the last years and are additionally challenged by demographic change, with an ageing society and out-migration leading to population shrinkage in many parts of Saxony. Disaster management, which is mostly volunteer-based in Germany, is particularly affected by this change, leading to a loss of members. We propose an agent-based simulation model that acts as a "virtual lab" to explore the impact of various changes on disaster management performance. Using different scenarios we examine the impact of changes in personal resources of DMOs, their access to operation relevant information, flood characteristics as well as differences between geographic regions. A loss of DMOs and associated manpower caused by demographic change has the most profound impact on the performance. Especially in rural, upstream regions population decline in combination with very short lead times can put disaster management performance at risk.

Floodplains and Complex Adaptive Systems—Perspectives on Connecting the Dots in Flood Risk Assessment with Coupled Component Models

“…In regards to flood risk management, agent-based models are being used for simulating the behavior of people in case of flooding. An example is the planning of evacuations [187][188][189], where pedestrians, cars, and crowding are considered. Another example is the assessment of flood risk management strategies under future climate changes [190].…”

Population dynamics and natural hazard risk management: conceptual and practical linkages for the case of Austrian policy making

“…However, some more recent contributions to the NHRM literature published in the last decade go one step further to address demographic change (e.g. the changing composition and size of a population) as a dynamic that can affect vulnerability, resilience and coping capacities in the long term (Adger 2000;Cross 2001;Wisner et al 2003;Chakraborty et al 2005;McLennan and Birch 2005;Fabricius et al 2007;Cutter and Finch 2008;Donner and Rodríguez 2008;Fekete 2009a and2009b;Gissing et al 2010;McLeman 2010;Jiang and Hardee 2011;Amundsen 2012;Aubrecht et al 2013;Roth et al 2014;Birkmann et al 2015;Dressler et al 2016;Fekete et al 2016;Fekete 2018). Their call for (more) dynamic perspectives on hazard risks and their management (Cutter and Emrich 2006;Cutter and Finch 2008;Kuhlicke 2010;Lutz and Muttarak 2017;Clar 2019) confirms that we still lack holistic approaches, which can serve as a model for systematic analyses of population dynamics in the frame of NHRM.…”

How demographic developments determine the management of hydrometeorological hazard risks in rural communities: The linkages between demographic and natural hazards research

“…They show how communities with a significant population shrinkage, often in regions with a declining economy, face a decline in adaptive and coping capacity—“as the provision of essential public and private services (e.g. flood protection) is not possible anymore due to budget constraints” (Dressler et al, , p. 2288)—but do not face a significant reduction of vulnerability. They come to the conclusion that demographic change can lead to a mismatch between, on one hand, the demand for protection and, on the other hand, the provision of resources that are necessary to attain this protection (Dressler et al, , p. 2298).…”