Towards scenario representation of adaptive capacity for global climate change assessments

Andrijevic, Marina; Schleußner, Carl-Friedrich; Cuaresma, Jesús Crespo; Lissner, Tabea; Muttarak, Raya; Riahi, Keywan; Theokritoff, Emily; Thomas, Adelle; Maanen, Nicole van; Byers, Edward

doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01725-1

Cited by 15 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 75 publications

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“…The severity of climate risks for human systems under overshoot will significantly depend on their adaptive capacity 38 , as well as the potential transgression of limits to adaptation 39 . An overshoot above 1.5°C would likely emerge during the first half of the 21st century, a period still characterised by comparably low adaptive capacity in large parts of the globe even under optimistic scenarios of socio-economic development 38 . The coincidence of overshoot and low adaptive capacity can amplify climate risks.…”

Section: Socio-economic Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Overconfidence in climate overshoot

Schleussner,

Ganti,

Lejeune

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Global emission reduction efforts continue to be insufficient to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. This makes the systematic exploration of so-called overshoot pathways that draw temperatures back down to safer levels in the long term a priority for science and policy. Here we show that global and regional climate change in a post-overshoot world would be substantially different from a world that avoided overshoot, bearing profound implications for adaptation needs. Irrespective of the peak warming, we find that achieving declining global temperature remains critical for limiting long-term climate risks including sea-level rise and cryosphere changes. Reversal of warming by deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) at scale, however, is not guaranteed. In addition to uncertain technical and sustainability limitations of CDR, we find that a preventive CDR capacity of several hundred gigatonnes might be desirable to hedge against strong Earth system feedbacks that amplify warming. Aiming for temperature decline is thus not a robust strategy to achieve a climate objective, but rather one part of a broader approach towards managing long-term climate risks. It is no replacement for stringent near-term emission reductions to limit risks at peak warming in the first place.

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Section: Socio-economic Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Overconfidence in climate overshoot

Schleussner,

Ganti,

Lejeune

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…Articles 2 and 4 of the Paris Agreement emphasize the need to integrate climate resilience and greenhouse gas emissions reduction into sustainable development objectives. While the alignment of climate actions with the sustainable development objectives have been somewhat addressed (Bertram et al, 2018;Soergel et al, 2021), the nuanced interplay between adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development often remains underrepresented in the global studies (Andrijevic et al, 2023;. The limited focus on integration of multiple societally relevant objectives within sectorally integrated frameworks constrains our ability to understand synergies and tradeoffs that may emerge from simultaneously achieving those multiple objectives.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This paper focuses on pathways building resilience in the Energy-Water-Land (EWL) nexus, which requires understanding and management of complex interactions between mitigation, adaptation actions and related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (Mpandeli et al, 2018;Schipper et al, 2022). In this context, multisectoral Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) can be used to understand pathways to avoid isolated decision-making, effectively capture these complexities across multiple sectors, and identify the trade-offs and synergies between adaptation and mitigation strategies (Andrijevic et al, 2023; van Maanen et al, 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Water Basins under Combined Climate Mitigation, Adaptation, and Sustainable Development Targets

Awais,

Vinca,

Byers

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Water systems are crucial for sustainable development and energy-water-land system-wide climate mitigation and adaptation to changing climate. We explore the dynamic interplay between climate change adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development within these systems. We demonstrate, how strategic investments in a “Resilience scenario” – climate mitigation and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) combined, leads to approximately 20% reduction in water stress for vulnerable populations promoting sustainable water and energy systems. Despite the Resilience scenario targets, about one-third of global population (2.8 billion people) is expected to face adaptation barriers by mid-century, hindered by inadequate governance capacity. We demonstrate that investments in SDGs, combined with climate mitigation strategies, are more beneficial for the water sector than pursuing SDGs alone. Our findings suggest a necessary convergence of sustainable development, climate resilience, and human welfare to create a climate-resilient sustainable future, marking a significant step forward in facilitating integrated environmental policy and decision-making.

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“…At the same time, climate change already shows its effects on the abovementioned sectors in terms of mean temperature and water availability affecting crop yields, which have direct impacts on energy supply potential and demand, water and food provision and needs (Awais et al, 2024;Denissen et al, 2022;Gernaat et al, 2021;Immerzeel et al, 2010;Jägermeyr et al, 2021;Lutz et al, 2016;Mastrucci et al, 2022;van Vliet et al, 2016). There are clear linkages between climate impacts and global or intra-national inequalities and development, with the most vulnerable and poor countries being most likely exposed to extreme change and having at the same time the lowest capacity to adapt (Andrijevic et al, 2023;Byers et al, 2018). The literature is divided into major approaches for assessing and modelling climate impacts on the economy and individual sectors.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sánchez, 2018 presents a review of various modelling frameworks, from biophysical modelling, economic and IAMs in the context of climate impacts and inequalities, highlighting how both top-down and bottom-up approaches are essential to cover more or less regional and sectoral details (Sánchez, 2018). Recent development of Climate Impact Models (CIM), with high spatial and temporal resolution and highly detailed bio-physical interactions between atmosphere, land, and water have made these tools useful and complementary to IAMs in studying climate policy implications (Nozaki et al, 2023;van Maanen et al, 2023). In this study, we explore how climate geo-and bio-physical climate impacts in the water, energy and land affect the investment and operational cost to achieve sectoral-related SDG targets.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sectoral investments to achieve water, energy and land Sustainable Development Goals and enhance climate resilience

Vinca,

Awais,

Byers

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) necessitates a comprehensive understanding of the intricate relationships among water, energy, food, and land resources, particularly in the context of a growing global population and climate change. This paper explores the interplay between climate impacts and investment requirements for achieving sectoral-related SDG targets, employing the MESAGEix-GLOBIOM-Nexus model to analyze cost-optimal investment portfolios. By integrating biophysical sectoral climate impacts, including changes in water availability, crop yields, and energy demand for cooling services, the study assesses the economic implications on the SDG investment portfolios that enhance climate resilience. Our findings underline the cross-sectoral economic benefits of achieving nutrition and food waste policies, revealing significant reductions in water withdrawal-related expenditures, particularly in South Asia. Climate impacts introduce uncertainties on the expected SDG investments and Operation and Maintenance (O&M) costs, leading to potential expenditure increases, especially in water-scarce regions. The study also highlights the importance of considering long-term costs and uncertainties to maintain SDG targets’ standards throughout the century, with investment requirements in Asia that could vary from 10 to 30 percentage points, emphasizing the need for climate resilience-building measures in water infrastructure to address extreme climate events. This research contributes to understanding the complex interactions between climate impacts, socio-economic development and SDG achievement, offering insights for policymakers and stakeholders to navigate investment in pursuit of climate-resilient sustainable development. At the same time, it provides agenda inputs for research and modelling of integrated climate impacts.

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Towards scenario representation of adaptive capacity for global climate change assessments

Cited by 15 publications

References 75 publications

Overconfidence in climate overshoot

Overconfidence in climate overshoot

Global Water Basins under Combined Climate Mitigation, Adaptation, and Sustainable Development Targets

Sectoral investments to achieve water, energy and land Sustainable Development Goals and enhance climate resilience

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