Towards Probabilistic Analysis of Human-System Integration in Automated Driving

Suhir, Ephraïm; Paul, Gunther; Kaindl, Hermann

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-39512-4_2

Cited by 10 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Although the input data in these examples are more or less hypothetical, they 5) Future work should include training a system to convolute numerically a larger number of physically meaningful non-normal distributions. The developed formalism could be used also for the case, when an obstruction is unexpectedly determined in front of a railroad (RR) train [99][100][101][102][103][104][105][106][107][108][109][110][111][112][113][114].…”

Section: P S S mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Outcome of an Engineering Undertaking of Importance Must be Quantified to Assure its Success and Safety: Review

Suhir¹

2020

J Aerosp Eng Mech

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The outcome a of crucial engineering undertaking must be quantified at the design/planning stage to assure its success and safety, and since the probability of an operational failure is, in effect, never zero, such a quantification should be done on the probabilistic basis. Some recently published work on the probabilistic predictive modeling (PPM) and probabilistic design for reliability (PDfR) of aerospace electronic and photonic (E&P) products, including human-in-theloop (HITL) problems and challenges, is addressed and briefly reviewed. The effort was lately "brought down to earth" to model possible collision in automated driving (AD). In addition, some problems and tasks beyond the E&P and vehicular engineering field are also addressed with an objective to show how the developed methods and approached can be effectively and fruitfully employed, whenever there is a need to quantify the reliability of an engineering technology with consideration of the human performance. Accordingly, the following nine problems have been addressed in this review with an objective to show how the outcome of a critical engineering endeavor can be predicted using PPM and PDfR concept: 1) Accelerated testing in E&P engineering: Significance, attributes and challenges; 2) Failure-oriented accelerated testing (FOAT), its objective and role; 3) PPM approach and PDfR concept, their roles and applications; 4) Kinetic multi-parametric Boltzmann-Arrhenius-Zhurkov (BAZ) equation as the "heart" of the PDfR concept; 5) Burn-in-testing (BIT) of E&P products with an attempt to shed light on the basic "to BIT or not to BIT" question; 6) Adequate trust is an important constituent of the humancapacity-factor (HCF) affecting the outcome of a mission or an extraordinary situation; 7) PPM of an emergency-stopping situation in automated driving (AD) or on a railroad (RR); 8) Quantifying the astronaut's/pilot's/driver's/machinist's state of health (SoH) and its effect on his/hers performance; 9) Survivability of species in different habitats. The objective of the latter effort is to demonstrate that the developed PPM approaches and methodologies, and particularly those using multiparametric BAZ equation, could be effectively employed well beyond the vehicular engineering area.The general concepts are illustrated by numerical examples. All the considered PPM problems were treated using analytical ("mathematical") modeling. The attributes of the such modeling, the background of the multiparametric BAZ equation and the ten major principles ("the ten commandments") of the PDfR concept are addressed in the appendices.

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Section: P S S mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Outcome of an Engineering Undertaking of Importance Must be Quantified to Assure its Success and Safety: Review

Suhir¹

2020

J Aerosp Eng Mech

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“…As is known, two major phases of the stopping process are being distinguished [1][2][3][4]: the first one, the prebraking phase, includes the driver's perception (decision making) time and the reaction time, and is characterized by the more or less constant speed of the vehicle; the second one, when actual braking takes place, is characterized by a constant deceleration, and it is at this phase when an adequate brake power is important. In the analysis that follows, a probabilistic approach is applied to assess the level of this power needed to avoid obstruction with a suddenly detected steadfast obstacle in front of the moving vehicle.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Brake Power Required to Avoid Vehicular Obstruction with a Steadfast Obstacle

Suhir¹

2022

J. Adv. App. Comput. Math.

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Climate change has a huge challenge to 2050. Some renewable energies can be installed to reduce CO2 production. Unfortunately, the photovoltaic systems, wind energy, and ocean energy devices do not have direct thermal applications. These systems are useful for people’s electricity consumption. Absorption heat pumps (AHP) are thermal devices for increasing the temperature level from an energy source at medium temperature level, such as plane solar collectors, to another energy sink. The main problem with design, power calculations and device construction is a lack of education about this technology, which is more complex than compression heat pumps but with 90 % less electric energy consumption that would be supplied by photovoltaic cells. This paper shows an approximation for future engineers designing several absorption heat pumps to avoid global warming beyond the Paris Agreement. Future engineers should be encouraged to analyze this technology with this first and basic approach.

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“…quantifiable" -predict the PoF and the corresponding lifetime of an E&P product and/or a mission or an off-normal situation, when the role of the HF is critical [12], or when the reliability of the equipment (both hard-and software) and the human performance contribute jointly to the never-zero PoF of the considered effort. Accordingly, three major areas are distinguished and addressed with an objective to quantify what lends itself to more or less convincing quantification: 1) The aerospace E&P reliability ; 2) The role of the HF in some more or less typical aerospace situations [110][111][112][113][114][115][116][117][118][119][120][121][122][123][124][125][126]; 3) Some HITL related missions and situations, when the instrumentation's reliability and human performance contribute jointly to the outcome of such missions and situations [127][128][129][130][131][132][133][134][135][136][137][138][139][140][141][142][143][144]. The analyses use analytical modeling and applied probability theory [145][146][147][148][149][150].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

"Quantifying the Unquantifiable" in Aerospace Electronics and Ergonomics Engineering: Review

Suhir¹

2020

J Aerosp Eng Mech

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The today's efforts of aerospace system engineers, not to mention human psychologists, to assure adequate operational reliability of electronic-and-photonic (E&P) products and satisfactory success-and-safety of a mission or of an extraordinary situation, are, as a rule, based on more or less trustworthy statistics and on what is known as best practices. These efforts are typically unquantifiable, i.e. do not end up with numerical data that enable comparing different possible scenarios of the outcome of a planned undertaking. The objective of this review is to show, using examples from different and sometimes even unconnected areas of aerospace E&P and ergonomics engineering, how probabilistic predictive modeling (PPM) geared to a carefully designed, thoroughly conducted and adequately interpreted highly-focused and highly cost effective failure-oriented accelerated testing (FOAT) can be employed to quantify what is typically considered as "unquantifiable", i.e., to evaluate the lifetime and the corresponding probability of failure (PoF) of an aerospace E&P system, and/or the role of the human factor (HF), and to predict the outcome of a human-in-the-loop (HITL) related mission or an extraordinary situation, when equipment's reliability (both hard-and software) and human performance contribute jointly to the never-zero PoF of a mission or an extraordinary situation. The reader is not expected to necessarily "connect the dots", associated with different situations and examples provided. The only, but an important, feature that these examples have in common is that many aerospace system and ergonomics engineering related tasks and problems, which are perceived and treated today as unquantifiable, could and, in the author's opinion, should be quantified to assure safe and successful outcome of a particular aerospace undertaking of importance.

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Towards Probabilistic Analysis of Human-System Integration in Automated Driving

Cited by 10 publications

References 9 publications

The Outcome of an Engineering Undertaking of Importance Must be Quantified to Assure its Success and Safety: Review

The Outcome of an Engineering Undertaking of Importance Must be Quantified to Assure its Success and Safety: Review

Brake Power Required to Avoid Vehicular Obstruction with a Steadfast Obstacle

"Quantifying the Unquantifiable" in Aerospace Electronics and Ergonomics Engineering: Review

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