Towards pathways bending the curve terrestrial biodiversity trends within the 21st century

Leclère, David; Obersteiner, Michael; Alkemade, Rob; Almond, Rosamunde; Barrett, Meredith A.; Bunting, Gill; Burgess, N.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Chaudhary, Abhishek; Cornell, Stephen J.; Palma, Adriana De; DeClerck, F.; Fulvio, F. Di; Marco, Moreno Di; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Dürauer, Martina; Ferrier, Simon; Freeman, Robin; Fritz, Susanne A.; Fujimori, S.; Grooten, Monique; Harfoot, Mike; Harwood, Thomas D.; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlík, Petr; Hellweg, Stefanie; Herrero, M.; Hilbers, Jelle P.; Hill, Samantha L. L.; Hoskins, Andrew J.; Humpenöder, Florian; Kram, Tom; Krisztin, Tamás; Lotze‐Campen, Hermann; Mace, Georgina M.; Matsui, T.; Meyer, C.; Nel, Deon; Newbold, Tim; Ohashi, Haruka; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Schipper, Aafke M.; Schmidt-Traub, Guido; Stehfest, Elke; Strassburg, Bernardo; Tabeau, Andrzej; Valin, Hugo; Meijl, H. van; Vuuren, Detlef van; Zeist, Willem‐Jan van; Visconti, Piero; Ware, Chris; Watson, James; Wu, Wei; Young, Lisa

doi:10.22022/esm/04-2018.15241

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…We employed compositional-turnover models for vascular plant and invertebrate communities generated by Hoskins et al 17 using the global biodiversity modelling infrastructure BILBI, as recently applied to projecting biodiversity trends under future scenarios of socio-economic development 21,31,32 . This infrastructure relies on a GDM approach to predict spatial turnover in species composition between any pair of 30 arcseconds grid cells across the terrestrial surface of the planet (~1 km2 at the equator).…”

Section: Modelling Compositional Variation In Biological Communitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It also differed in the use of more recent datasets [40][41][42] during the fitting process (see Supplementary Methods for additional details). Following recent analyses 21,31,32 , values for the 12 LUH2 classes were combined into a cumulative habitat condition score, by multiplying each percentage land-use value for a coefficient representing the proportional native species richness (or "α diversity") expected to be retained under each land-use class, derived from the PREDICTS database 7,21,43,44 . The coefficients were estimated from a hierarchical mixed-effects model to assess how natural species richness responds to land use change 43 .…”

Section: Measuring the Condition Of Habitatsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Wilderness areas halve the extinction risk of terrestrial biodiversity

Marco

Ferrier

Harwood

et al. 2019

Nature

181

125

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Section: Modelling Compositional Variation In Biological Communitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Measuring the Condition Of Habitatsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wilderness areas halve the extinction risk of terrestrial biodiversity

Marco

Ferrier

Harwood

et al. 2019

Nature

181

125

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“…Scenario analysis are useful tools for strategic policy planning and implementation, helping to screen and set achievable targets with alternative policy and management options on different drivers that affect nature and people (Cloudy crystal balls, 2000;IPBES, 2016). Models quantify relationships between a range of socio-economic (e.g., population, economy, energy demand, technology) and environmental (e.g., land use, climate change mitigation and adaptation, natural resource use, pollution control) drivers to inform decision options for sectoral policies (Huppmann et al, 2019;Leclere et al, 2018;Obersteiner et al, 2016;Stehfest et al, 2014). These models can quantify alternative future scenarios by setting different assumptions and goals on policy or management options (e.g., land-use planning, fishery management) based on a range of environmental trajectories (e.g.…”

Section: Use Of Ebvs and Eesvs In Scenarios And Modelling For Policy ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Essential Biodiversity Variables and Essential Ecosystem Services Variables for the Implementation of Biodiversity Conservation and Sustainable Development Goals

Kim¹,

Navarro²,

Balvanera³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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As nations design a framework and a process for implementing the new goals and targets set by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), the question on how to report on the successes and failures of policy implementation is becoming more salient. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential role of Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs), Essential Ecosystem Services Variables (EESV) and their derived indicators in monitoring, planning, and implementing multiscale policy frameworks across spatial scales. We first introduce the EBVs and EESVs and then analyze their role in the UN CBD Global Biodiversity Framework, the Systems of Environmental Economic Accounting, Sustainable Development Goals, and the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. We illustrate how the EBVs and EESVs can be used across scales via application cases. We also discuss the use of EBVs and EESVs in scenarios and modelling for strategic policy planning. This paper presents the values of the Essential Variables in implementing biodiversity conservation and sustainable development goals, optimizing the integrative use of scientific, policy, and data frameworks and scalable and repeatable workflows from primary data to indicators.

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Livestock and Sustainable Food Systems: Status, Trends, and Priority Actions

Herrero

Mason-D’Croz

Thornton

et al. 2023

Science and Innovations for Food Systems Transformation

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Livestock are a critically important component of the food system, although the sector needs a profound transformation to ensure that it contributes to a rapid transition towards sustainable food systems. This chapter reviews and synthesises the evidence available on changes in demand for livestock products in the last few decades, and the multiple socio-economic roles that livestock have around the world. We also describe the nutrition, health, and environmental impacts for which the sector is responsible. We propose eight critical actions for transitioning towards a more sustainable operating space for livestock. (1) Facilitate shifts in the consumption of animal source foods (ASF), recognising that global reductions will be required, especially in communities with high consumption levels, while promoting increased levels in vulnerable groups, including the undernourished, pregnant women and the elderly. (2) Continue work towards the sustainable intensification of livestock systems, paying particular attention to animal welfare, food-feed competition, blue water use, disease transmission and perverse economic incentives. (3) Embrace the potential of circularity in livestock systems as a way of partially decoupling livestock from land. (4) Adopt practices that lead to the direct or indirect mitigation of greenhouse gases. (5) Adopt some of the vast array of novel technologies at scale and design incentive mechanisms for their rapid deployment. (6) Diversify the protein sources available for human consumption and feed, focusing on the high-quality alternative protein sources that have lower environmental impacts. (7) Tackle antimicrobial resistance effectively through a combination of technology and new regulations, particularly for the fast-growing poultry and pork sectors and for feedlot operations. (8) Implement true cost of food and true-pricing approaches to ASF consumption.

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Towards pathways bending the curve terrestrial biodiversity trends within the 21st century

Cited by 5 publications

References 0 publications

Wilderness areas halve the extinction risk of terrestrial biodiversity

Wilderness areas halve the extinction risk of terrestrial biodiversity

Essential Biodiversity Variables and Essential Ecosystem Services Variables for the Implementation of Biodiversity Conservation and Sustainable Development Goals

Livestock and Sustainable Food Systems: Status, Trends, and Priority Actions

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