Towards novel approaches to modelling biotic interactions in multispecies assemblages at large spatial extents

Abstract

Aim Biotic interactions – within guilds or across trophic levels – have widely been ignored in species distribution models (SDMs). This synthesis outlines the development of ‘species interaction distribution models’ (SIDMs), which aim to incorporate multispecies interactions at large spatial extents using interaction matrices. Location Local to global. Methods We review recent approaches for extending classical SDMs to incorporate biotic interactions, and identify some methodological and conceptual limitations. To illustrate possible directions for conceptual advancement we explore three principal ways of modelling multispecies interactions using interaction matrices: simple qualitative linkages between species, quantitative interaction coefficients reflecting interaction strengths, and interactions mediated by interaction currencies. We explain methodological advancements for static interaction data and multispecies time series, and outline methods to reduce complexity when modelling multispecies interactions. Results Classical SDMs ignore biotic interactions and recent SDM extensions only include the unidirectional influence of one or a few species. However, novel methods using error matrices in multivariate regression models allow interactions between multiple species to be modelled explicitly with spatial co‐occurrence data. If time series are available, multivariate versions of population dynamic models can be applied that account for the effects and relative importance of species interactions and environmental drivers. These methods need to be extended by incorporating the non‐stationarity in interaction coefficients across space and time, and are challenged by the limited empirical knowledge on spatio‐temporal variation in the existence and strength of species interactions. Model complexity may be reduced by: (1) using prior ecological knowledge to set a subset of interaction coefficients to zero, (2) modelling guilds and functional groups rather than individual species, and (3) modelling interaction currencies and species’ effect and response traits. Main conclusions There is great potential for developing novel approaches that incorporate multispecies interactions into the projection of species distributions and community structure at large spatial extents. Progress can be made by: (1) developing statistical models with interaction matrices for multispecies co‐occurrence datasets across large‐scale environmental gradients, (2) testing the potential and limitations of methods for complexity reduction, and (3) sampling and monitoring comprehensive spatio‐temporal data on biotic interactions in multispecies communities.

Biodiversity, Species Interactions and Ecological Networks in a Fragmented World

“…For food webs, numerous measures and definitions have been described (see review by Berlow et al, 2004), whereas in mutualistic networks the interaction frequency is the norm . Both qualitative and quantitative interaction parameters allow not only the description of local community-level interactions, but also the modelling of multispecies interactions across larger scales (Kissling et al, 2012a). Mutualistic and antagonistic networks represent the two main groups encountered in the ecological literature, and each has its own historical tradition .…”

“…The analysis of multispecies ecological networks in a spatially explicit setting is still in its infancy (Dale and Fortin, 2010;Kissling et al, 2012a), although other types of networks have been investigated in spatial and landscape ecology (Dale and Fortin, 2010). Here, nodes are considered as locations (such as lakes or habitat fragments) and links define the connections among them (Dale and Fortin, 2010).…”

Mechanistic and Correlative Models of Ecological Niches

“…By the same token, transient views of environmental changes through time that are of interest can be included, which will interact in complex ways with dispersal ability as populations diffuse across a changing environmental landscape. Such an ideal case has not, to our knowledge, been developed fully, although a few studies have linked multiple pieces of this complicated puzzle Kissling et al 2012;Marion et al 2012;Barve et al 2014).…”

Adapted conservation measures are required to save the Iberian lynx in a changing climate

“…We consider the interaction between rabbits and Iberian lynx as unidirectional, because lynx are extremely rare, whereas rabbits are abundant and have greater than 30 vertebrate predators,many ofthem widelydistributed andlocally abundant 15 . Rareeffortstoaccountforspeciesinteractionsinclimate-ecological forecasts have used overly simple approaches; by adding an interactingspeciesasanadditional predictorinacorrelativemodel, or by restricting the distribution of one species to the modelled distribution of the other 16 .…”