Towards modelling persistence of woodland birds: the role of genetics

Abstract

Abstract. Assessing how environmental change affects the probability of persistence of organisms requires an understanding of dispersal through, and occupation of, landscapes, and the associated demographic outcomes. Projections of differences in persistence probability can then be made under different scenarios of land-use and global environmental change. Rates and distances of dispersal, and demographic change and trajectories, are difficult to measure accurately, but genetic approaches can make major contributions. For two decades the field of molecular ecology has been providing useful life-history information relevant to population management, including key ecological attributes such as disease-resistance and thermal biology, mobility, dispersal and gene flow, habitat connectivity, the spatial and temporal scales of population processes, and demography. Genetic estimators of these factors could be employed to a much greater extent than they are currently. To facilitate this increased use, genetic estimates of functional connectivity (mobility and gene flow of organisms) and demography need to be integrated directly into decision-making processes. Population genetics is well suited to Bayesian approaches, with associated benefits including the ability to consider many factors, and estimation of error and parameter sensitivities. Genetic estimators based on the mobility and reproductive success of individual organisms and their key ecological traits can make unique contributions alongside other types of data into agent-based, spatially explicit modelling approaches of real landscape scenarios at the range of scales needed by managers. Virtually all the tools to do this exist. It is imperative that genetic samples be collected for contemporary and future analyses.

Declining woodland birds—is our science making a difference?

“…An important new dimension in understanding processes associated with the conservation of woodland birds is outlined in this issue by Sunnucks (2011). This significant review examines how genetic approaches provide both complementary and unique insights into the persistence of bird populations in the highly modified landscapes with which they must contend.…”

“…Sunnucks (2011) highlights many opportunities that recent advances in molecular ecology offer to evaluating changes in bird populations, including ways in which population genetics may complement demographic analyses and work in concert with traditional ecological approaches to estimate connectivity between disjunct populations directly. Similarly, Szabo et al (2011) illustrate a new flexible approach, list-length analysis, for analysing data from monitoring programs for woodland birds.…”

“…Genetic approaches, for example, can be used to identify population boundaries and the differentiation of populations in space and time; and they provide important insights into the effective size of populations and the potential effects of inbreeding and genetic drift on population decline. They also offer valuable techniques for investigating dispersal rates, dispersal distances and the effectiveness of dispersal events (Sunnucks 2011), metrics that have proven far more difficult to estimate via traditional ecological methods. The emerging field of landscape genetics (Manel et al 2003;Sunnucks 2011) offers great potential for integrating genetic approaches with data on demography, environmental gradients (e.g.…”

“…They also offer valuable techniques for investigating dispersal rates, dispersal distances and the effectiveness of dispersal events (Sunnucks 2011), metrics that have proven far more difficult to estimate via traditional ecological methods. The emerging field of landscape genetics (Manel et al 2003;Sunnucks 2011) offers great potential for integrating genetic approaches with data on demography, environmental gradients (e.g. vegetation, climate) and landscape structure to evaluate present impacts and future consequences of human land-use.…”

“…In addition to Watson's essay that expands on his keynote address, five of the papers in this issue (Doerr et al 2011;Ford 2011;Maron et al 2011;Sunnucks 2011;Szabo et al 2011) arise directly from that symposium. The remaining three (Bilney et al 2011;Jenner et al 2011;Weaving et al 2011) are additional contributions that complement this theme.…”