Towards low carbon development in China: a comparison of national and global models

Chen, Wenying; Yin, Xiang; Zhang, Hongjun

doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0937-7

Cited by 88 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…More detailed descriptions of energy models are reviewed by Bhowmik et al (2017), Calvin et al (2012), Chen et al (2016), Connolly et al (2010), Després et al (2015), Foley et al (2010), Pfenninger et al (2014), Suganthi and Samuel (2012), and Weijermars et al (2012).…”

Section: Which Tools To Use? a Synthesismentioning

confidence: 99%

Selecting Tools for Renewable Energy Analysis in Developing Countries: An Expanded Review

et al. 2017

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Renewable energy planners in developing countries should be cautious in using analytical tools formulated in developed countries. Traditional energy consumption, economic and demography transitions, high-income inequality, and informal economy are some characteristics of developing countries that may contradict the assumptions of mainstream, widely used analytical tools. In this study, we synthesize the debate in previous review studies on energy models for developing countries and then extend the scope of the previous studies by highlighting emerging methods of system thinking, life cycle thinking, and decision support analysis. We then discuss how these tools have been used for renewable energy analysis in developing countries and found out that not all studies are aware of the emerging critical issues in developing countries. We offer here a guidance to select the most appropriate analytical tool, mainly when dealing with energy modeling and analysis for developing countries. We also suggest potential future improvements to the analytical tool for renewable energy modeling and analysis in the developing countries.

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Section: Which Tools To Use? a Synthesismentioning

confidence: 99%

Selecting Tools for Renewable Energy Analysis in Developing Countries: An Expanded Review

et al. 2017

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“…The emission scenarios from the integrated assessment models provide a split into regional budgets under the assumption of cost efficient implementation. Clearly, even under this assumption there is considerable uncertainty about the cost-effective regional split of emissions budgets as it depends on, inter alia, baseline emissions, regional mitigation potentials, differences in the global emissions reduction rate and terms of trade effects, all of which can vary substantially across models and regions 14,33,43 . Figure 2 provides estimates about regional cumulative emission budgets, as well as the historical contribution to emissions of the major economies.…”

Section: Figure 1 Herementioning

confidence: 99%

Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models

et al. 2014

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Integrated assessment models can help quantifying the implications of international climate agreements and regional climate action. This paper reviews scenario results from model intercomparison projects to explore different possible outcomes of post 2020 climate negotiations, recently announced pledges and their relation to 2°C. We provide key information for all the major economies such as the year of emission peaking, the regional carbon budgets and emissions allowances. We highlight the distributional consequences of climate policies, and discuss the role of carbon markets for financing clean energy investments, and achieving efficiency and equity.So far, international climate policy has been ineffective in curbing the rise of global greenhouse-gas emissions. Still, ambitious climate targets such as the 2°C target require a phase-out of global emissions by the end of the century, and an active participation of all world regions in climate policy 1 . Given the many obstacles to global cooperative action on climate change, the question remains how diverse national climate policies can be coordinated and strengthened globally. Within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Durban Platform for Enhanced 2 Action 2 provides an important platform for a post-2020 international climate agreement. It contains several innovative elements, most notably a focus on the major economies that goes beyond the traditional divide between Annex I and non-Annex I countries. The Durban platform calls for a new climate treaty to be agreed in 2015 and implemented as early as 2020. The recently announced USChina climate deal and the EU climate framework provide encouraging steps forwards, but aligning the incentives of the major emitters in pursuing stringent climate policies remains a challenge. In this paper, we aim at assessing the implications of post 2020 climate policies with specific reference to the major economies. We provide quantitative estimates of regional emission budgets, timing of emission peaking, and distribution of mitigation costs. We examine the role of carbon markets and different burden sharing schemes to alleviate distributional inequalities and finance the investment needs in low carbon mitigation technologies. In order to quantify these policy relevant variables, we resort to global models.Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are tools designed to investigate the implications of achieving climate and other objectives in an integrated and rigorous framework. They are numerical models that account for major interactions among energy, land-use, economic and climate systems. Model differ in the economic, technological and sectoral representation and in the way they are solved, with some models maximizing an inter-temporal objective function (such as economic activity) and others simulating a set of equilibria (see the SOM for individual model description and references to documentation). Models generate global long-term scenarios for a number of regions or countries that ca...

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“…To conduct a more systematic and consistent analysis, unlike other modelling comparison studies (Bellevrat, 2012;Chen, Yin, & Zhang, 2013;Li, & Qi, 2011;Zhou et al, 2011), this article mainly focuses on the most recent scenario databases published by international modelling comparison projects like AME, LIMITS, AMPERE, ROSE, EMF, and so on, which have been adopted in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) analysis, instead of single studies. We have also reviewed some recently published single modelling studies (IDDRI / SDSN, 2014;New Climate Economy, 2014;Paltsev et al, 2012;Zhang, Karplus, Qi, Zhang, & He, 2014).…”

Section: Summary Of Models Included In the Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of Chinese CO₂emission projections to 2030: the role of economic structure and policy

et al. 2015

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The projections of 89 scenarios from 12 different models for the CO 2 emissions of China to 2030 are reviewed, along with wider examinations of lessons from the history of energy forecasting in OECD countries, and of the Chinese macroeconomic situation.Even by 2030, emissions in the scenarios span a factor of almost 2.5, indicating significant range and uncertainty. Statistical analysis of Kaya components suggests the carbon intensity of energy supply to be the strongest determining factor. However, most scenarios assume that industry 1 continues to account for more than 50% of total final energy demand. This is in contrast both to historical examples, which have consistently shown economies shifting from energy-intensive industrial bases to servicebased structures as income per capita rises, and to recent Chinese policy statements, which reflect a similar ambition. It is also highly salient that major failures in energy and emissions projections can frequently be accounted for in retrospect by failures to anticipate such major economic structural shifts.In conclusion, while the future trajectory of Chinese emissions remains profoundly uncertain, the potential for a significant Chinese macroeconomic transition and its implications for the scale and structure of energy demand will be a crucial factor, to which energy-climate models must pay far more attention. Policy relevanceThe dramatic growth of Chinese emissions since 2000 has become a major factor in global emission prospects and the international political agenda. Many models project rapid continued emissions growth, but an apparent halt in Chinese emissions in 2014 has amplified debate. Projections and policy need to recognise fundamental uncertainties in emission prospects, because in addition to energy/climate-specific policies, they depend on the progress in Chinese macroeconomic reforms, which are poorly represented in the models we survey. Global projections, the international process, and the design of China's own policies (most obviously, its national cap-and-trade system) need to cope with the possibility of continued growth to peaking in 2030 (the central commitment in China's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution), but must also be prepared to exploit and encourage the possibilities of low-carbon development and much earlier peaking.

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Towards low carbon development in China: a comparison of national and global models

Cited by 88 publications

References 7 publications

Selecting Tools for Renewable Energy Analysis in Developing Countries: An Expanded Review

Selecting Tools for Renewable Energy Analysis in Developing Countries: An Expanded Review

Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models

A review of Chinese CO₂emission projections to 2030: the role of economic structure and policy

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Towards low carbon development in China: a comparison of national and global models

Cited by 88 publications

References 7 publications

Selecting Tools for Renewable Energy Analysis in Developing Countries: An Expanded Review

Selecting Tools for Renewable Energy Analysis in Developing Countries: An Expanded Review

Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models

A review of Chinese CO2emission projections to 2030: the role of economic structure and policy

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A review of Chinese CO₂emission projections to 2030: the role of economic structure and policy