Towards extended shared socioeconomic pathways: A combined participatory bottom-up and top-down methodology with results from the Barents region

Nilsson, Annika E.; Bay-Larsen, Ingrid; Carlsen, Henrik; Oort, Bob van; Bjørkan, Maiken; Jylhä, Kirsti; Klyuchnikova, Elena; Маслобоев, В. А.; Watt, Lize-Marié van der

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.06.001

Cited by 120 publications

(126 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…The aim of this article is to provide an exploratory assessment of the applicability of the SDGs to the Arctic context and to discuss how the specific targets and their related indicators in the UN reporting system relate to insights from relevant Arctic assessments of human development, with emphasis on the Arctic Social Indicators, resilience, and adaptive capacity. Our assessment will also include attention to insights from scenario workshops and interviews that we have been conducting in various locations in the Barents region and Greenland from 2015 to 2019 around questions concerning the drivers of change and issues that are likely to be locally and regionally important in the coming two to three decades [24] and further as yet unpublished work, as well as questions related to what people view as important aspects of their overall sense of well-being.…”

Section: Background and Aimmentioning

confidence: 99%

Making Regional Sense of Global Sustainable Development Indicators for the Arctic

Nilsson

Larsen

2020

Sustainability

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Since the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were adopted in 2015, efforts are underway to identify indicators for monitoring progress. However, perceptions of sustainability are scale and place specific, and there has also been a call for Sustainable Development Goals and indicators that are more relevant for the Arctic than the global perspectives. Based on earlier and ongoing efforts to identify Arctic Social Indicators for monitoring human development, insights from scenario workshops and interviews at various locations in the Barents region and Greenland and on studies of adaptive capacity and resilience in the Arctic, we provide an exploratory assessment of the global SDGs and indicators from an Arctic perspective. We especially highlight a need for additional attention to demography, including outmigration; indigenous rights; Arctic-relevant measures of economic development; and social capital and institutions that can support adaptation and transformation in this rapidly changing region. Issues brought up by the SDG framework that need more attention in Arctic monitoring include gender, and food and energy security. We furthermore highlight a need for initiatives that can support bottom–up processes for identifying locally relevant indicators for sustainable development that could serve as a way to engage Arctic residents and other regional and local actors in shaping the future of the region and local communities, within a global sustainability context.

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Section: Background and Aimmentioning

confidence: 99%

Making Regional Sense of Global Sustainable Development Indicators for the Arctic

Nilsson

Larsen

2020

Sustainability

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“…Participatory processes are a common approach to design socioeconomic and environmental scenarios at the regional and local scale , Nilsson et al 2017, Palazzo et al 2017 as well as to identify local drivers of vulnerability to climate-related hazards (Reckien 2014, Maharjan et al 2017.…”

Section: Participatory Processesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…extended SSPs for health (Ebi 2013, Sellers and, food security worldwide (Hasegawa et al 2015), the water sector (Wada et al 2016, Yao et al 2017, fisheries (Maury et al 2017), forestry , population distribution (Jones and O'Neill 2016), and urbanization (Li et al 2019). However, there has been only a few regional extensions, limited as for now to extended SSPs for the Barents Region (Nilsson et al 2017), the South-East US (Absar and Preston 2015), West-Africa (Palazzo et al 2017), New Zealand (Frame et al 2018), the Mediterranean coast (Reimann et al 2018), the Baltic Sea (Zandersen et al 2019), Europe (Kok et al 2019, Tokyo (Kamei et al 2016), and Houston (Rohat et al in revision). The two latter set of extended SSPs -which are the only existing urban extended SSPs to our knowledge -have been developed based on the review of historical trends, and subsequently refined through an interactive process with key local experts using individual interviews and/or questionnaires.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways at the city scale to inform future vulnerability assessments – The case of Boston, Massachusetts

Lino¹,

Rohat²,

Kirshen³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Climate change will impact cities' infrastructure and urban dwellers, who often show differentiated capacity to cope with climate-related hazards. An emerging research field, using the latest global socioeconomic and climate scenarios -namely the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration (RCPs) -is exploring how different socioeconomic pathways will influence future society's ability to cope with climate change impacts. While the SSPs have been extensively used at the global scale, their use at the local and urban scale has remained rare, as they first need to be contextualized and extended for the particular place of interest. In this study, we present and apply a method to develop multi-scale extended SSPs at the city and neighborhood scale. Using Boston, Massachusetts, as a case study, we combined scenario matching, experts' elicitation, and participatory processes to contextualize and make the global SSPs relevant at the urban scale. We subsequently employed the extended SSPs to explore future neighborhood-level vulnerability to extreme heat under multiple plausible socioeconomic trajectories, highlighting the usefulness of extended SSPs in informing future vulnerability assessments. The large differences in outcomes hint at the enormous potential of risk reduction that social and urban planning policies could trigger in the next decades.

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“…(2) The variables and data of regional impact assessment models need bias correction to make them more suitable to the local situation which needs to collect lots of historical data and other relative climate data, but some data are missing [18]. (3) Formulating regional climate policies needs to consider global temperature goals and stakeholders [18,[25][26][27][28]. If policies are in conflict with stakeholders, it is difficult to be carried out.…”

Section: Ssp5mentioning

confidence: 99%

Building Regional Sustainable Development Scenarios with the SSP Framework

Shi

Cui

2019

Sustainability

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Climate change is having an increasing effect on human society and ecosystems. The United Nations has established 17 sustainable development goals, one of which is to cope with climate change. How to scientifically explore uncertainties and hazards brought about by climate change in the future is crucial. The new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has proposed shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to project climate change scenarios. SSP has been analyzed globally, but how regions and nations respond to the global climate change and mitigation policies is seldom explored, which do not meet the demand for regional environmental assessment and social sustainable development. Therefore, in this paper, we reviewed and discussed how SSPs were applied to regions, and this can be summarized into four main categories: (1) integrated assessment model (IAM) scenario analysis, (2) SSPs-RCPs-SPAs framework scenario analysis, (3) downscaling global impact assessment model, and (4) regional impact assessment model simulation. The study provides alternative ways to project land use, water resource, energy, and ecosystem service in regions, which can carry out related policies and actions to address climate change in advance and help achieve sustainable development.

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Towards extended shared socioeconomic pathways: A combined participatory bottom-up and top-down methodology with results from the Barents region

Cited by 120 publications

References 32 publications

Making Regional Sense of Global Sustainable Development Indicators for the Arctic

Making Regional Sense of Global Sustainable Development Indicators for the Arctic

Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways at the city scale to inform future vulnerability assessments – The case of Boston, Massachusetts

Building Regional Sustainable Development Scenarios with the SSP Framework

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