Towards an objective historical tropical cyclone dataset for the Australian region

Courtney, Joseph B.; Burton, Andrew; Velden, Christopher S.; Olander, Timothy L.; Ritchie, Elizabeth A.; Stark, Clair; Majewski, Leon

doi:10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.03.003

Cited by 6 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…During this process winds were often reduced during weakening phases owing to the change in the Dvorak weakening rule to use 6 h instead of 12 h for holding the intensity higher. Courtney et al (2020) details the intensity decreases from the application of the Dvorak covered centre patterns, especially during the 1980s, and the change in the weakening rule.…”

Section: Reanalysis Using the Hursat Archive And Collation Of Case Studies Not Previously Included In The Databasementioning

confidence: 95%

“…3. The final V m can be adjusted from the Dvorak according to other inputs, such as surface observations, scatterometry, microwave patterns and objective estimates, such as ADT (Olander and Velden 2019) and SATCON (Velden and Herndon 2020), as summarised in appendix 1 of Courtney and Burton (2020). However, in the Australian region, it is rare that surface observations influence the intensity estimate, and scatterometry, microwave and objective techniques have only been available since the early 2000s, so for TCs from 1973 to the early 2000s, the Dvorak technique was the only method to estimate the intensity in the absence of observations.…”

Section: Application Of the Dvorak Techniquementioning

confidence: 99%

“…While it is not possible to be definitive about biases in the technique in the Australian region, a comparison of BT and the ADT during the objective reanalysis study discussed in section 5 (Courtney et al 2020), remarkably showed there was just a 0.2 kn bias for the 2003-16 era.…”

Section: Application Of the Dvorak Techniquementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Objective Tropical Cyclone Reanalysis (OTCR) project (Courtney and Burton 2018;Courtney et al 2020) aimed to produce a homogeneous TC dataset by applying the ADT to IR imagery for all Australian TCs between 1981 and 2016. The ADT was run in two modes: (1) incorporating passive microwave imagery (PMW), which is the current operational mode and (2) without PMW given that it only became available in the 1990s.…”

Section: The Objective Tropical Cyclone Reanalysis Project (2016-19)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As discussed in the OTCR project (Courtney and Burton 2018;Courtney et al 2020), the BT dataset from 2003 is the period of highest quality, aside from CP when 2007 onwards is the best quality. Undoubtedly the efforts outlined in this report have made the intensity dataset far more homogenous, especially since 1981.…”

Section: Database Homogeneity and Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Revisions to the Australian tropical cyclone best track database

Courtney

Foley

Burgel

et al. 2021

J. South. Hemisph. Earth Syst. Sci.

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The Australian tropical cyclone (TC) best track database (BT) maintained by the Bureau of Meteorology has records since 1909 of varying quality and completeness. Since 2005 a series of efforts to improve the database have included: removing internal inconsistencies, adding fixes, and identifying errors using comparisons with other datasets; upgrading intensity information since 1973 including adding maximum winds (Vm) prior to 1984–85, rederiving Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from archived material and accounting for different wind–pressure relationships used; a partial reanalysis of satellite imagery including microwave imagery using the HURSAT dataset since 1987; and considering an objective intensity dataset. The BT homogeneity is reviewed in the context of improvements in satellite technology, observational coverage, scientific developments, BT procedures and the subjective variation between analysts across time and offices. The scale of these variances is greatest in the early stages prior to 1981 in the absence of geostationary satellite imagery until 1978, satellite calibration issues from 1978–80 and prior to the introduction of the enhanced infra-red Dvorak technique in 1981. The current era since 2003 is considered to be the most accurate, comprehensive and homogeneous corresponding to the expansion of the TC database to include the current suite of fields; the application of microwave and scatterometry imagery; greater standardisation of BT practices and slight changes in the application of the Dvorak technique. These improvements have generated a more consistent dataset that could be used for weather and climate research and other TC-related work.

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Section: Reanalysis Using the Hursat Archive And Collation Of Case Studies Not Previously Included In The Databasementioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Application Of the Dvorak Techniquementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Application Of the Dvorak Techniquementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Objective Tropical Cyclone Reanalysis Project (2016-19)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Database Homogeneity and Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Revisions to the Australian tropical cyclone best track database

Courtney

Foley

Burgel

et al. 2021

J. South. Hemisph. Earth Syst. Sci.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Estimating tropical cyclone surface winds: Current status, emerging technologies, historical evolution, and a look to the future

Knaff

Sampson

Kucas

et al. 2021

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review

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Using historical tropical cyclone climate datasets to examine wind speed recurrence for coastal Australia

Bell

Dowdy

Ramsay

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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Likelihood estimates of extreme winds, including those from tropical cyclones (TCs) at certain locations are used to inform wind load standards for structural design. Here, wind speed average recurrence intervals (ARIs) determined from TC climate data dating back to the 1970s in two quantile–quantile adjusted reanalysis datasets (ERA5 and BARRA [1990]), and best-track observations for context, were compared with Standardized ARIs (AS/NZS) across seven tropical and two subtropical Australian inland coastal regions. The novelty of this work lies in determining TC-wind speed ARIs from a range of datasets that are not typically used to evaluate this metric. Inherent differences between the data used to determine the Standard ARIs (large sample size allow for larger extrapolations; GEV function) and TC data ARIs (smaller sample size and less certain data; the more asymptotic Lognormal/Weibull functions are used) led to the use of different extreme value functions. Results indicated that although these are two distinct ways of determining design wind speeds, when they are considered equivalent, there was a moderate reproduction of the ARI curves with respect to the Standard in both reanalysis datasets, suggesting that similar analyses using climate model products can provide useful information on these types of metrics with some caveats. Trends in TC wind strength affecting coastal Australia were also analyzed, indicating a potential slight downtrend in tropical West coast TC wind strength and slight uptrend for tropical East coast TC wind strength, noting considerable uncertainty given the short time period and limitations of data quality including over longer time periods. Such trends are not only limited to the relationship between TC intensity and anthropogenic warming, but also to regional changes in TC frequency and track direction. This could lead to significant trends emerging in regional Australian TC wind gust strength before several decades of warming have occurred. It is hoped that climate models can provide both longer-term and a more homogenous base for these types of evaluations and subsequent projections with respect to climate change simulations.

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Towards an objective historical tropical cyclone dataset for the Australian region

Cited by 6 publications

References 15 publications

Revisions to the Australian tropical cyclone best track database

Revisions to the Australian tropical cyclone best track database

Estimating tropical cyclone surface winds: Current status, emerging technologies, historical evolution, and a look to the future

Using historical tropical cyclone climate datasets to examine wind speed recurrence for coastal Australia

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