Towards an integrated system modeling of water scarcity with projected changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions

Dehghani, Sedigheh; Bavani, Alireza Massah; Roozbahani, Abbas; Gohari, Alireza; Berndtsson, Ronny

doi:10.1016/j.spc.2022.07.023

Cited by 11 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Due to limited water supply resources, the issue of access to water for human consumptions has become one of the most important challenges for urban communities in the current century (Kuski et al 2020;Li et al 2015;Moya-Fernandez et al 2021). Restrictions on access to water resources in many countries pose a major threat to their economic and social development (Dehghani et al 2022;Mekonnen and Hoekstra 2016). The growth of urbanization in developing countries on the African and Asian continents, such as Iran, is accelerating (Lehmann 2012;United Nations 2014, 2017Zhang 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of various types of household water consumption based on critical consumption behaviours using a novel criterion in metropolitan cities

Abbasi,

Kadkhodaei

2023

Preprint

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Rising demand for urban water consumption, especially for household uses, has led to a water crisis in various cities around the world. The amount of household water consumption, as the most important part of urban water use, is significantly affected by the consumers’ behaviours and water saving equipment used. Therefore, it is necessary to mitigate the household water demand by applying effective strategies such as promoting the water conservation culture and installing water saving appliances. For this purpose, consumers’ behaviours should be evaluated and various types of household water consumptions should be ranked. In this research, by distributing questionnaires among the citizens of Mashhad city, the consumer behaviours were evaluated. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was applied to examine the similarity of people's consumption behaviours in various household uses. The results showed that people's consumption behaviours are different. By defining the impact coefficient index and the average impact coefficient index, various types of household water consumptions were ranked using Friedman and Wilcoxon statistical tests. Based on the results, changing consumption behaviours in bathing has the highest efficiencies on reducing water consumption. Dishwashing, using the washing machine and sanitation (toilet) were jointly ranked second. Car washing and tooth brushing were both equally important and ranked third.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of various types of household water consumption based on critical consumption behaviours using a novel criterion in metropolitan cities

Abbasi,

Kadkhodaei

2023

Preprint

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“…From a strictly quantitative point-of-view local or regional studies face the complex problem of correcting accounts for water availability. Changes in land cover, population growth, regional or even national economic drivers, and climate change are only a few features that can change water availability long-term (Dehghani et al, 2022). On top of that, the uncontrolled change in water use is much more prominent and difficult to estimate than the change in the natural availability in a river basin.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainties in Water Scarcity Index due to water use and climate changes: Case of two Legal Amazon watersheds

PONTES¹,

Cavalcanti²,

Serrão³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Water scarcity is a major global problem with the potential to impact socioeconomic development and the environment. Currently, mitigating issues related to the lack of water has become an aim for the public and private sectors. Water scarcity can be estimated by the ratio between water use (withdrawal or consumption) and water availability (a minimum discharge), named Water Stress Index (WSI). But some uncertainties can influence the perception of water scarcity, such as population growth, land cover, climate changes, uncontrolled water use, and the scale at which the WSI is evaluated. To improve the knowledge about water management in two basins in eastern Legal Amazon, We estimated WSI at unit-catchments scale from MGB hydrologic model, water use data, and climate change projections. Our results showed a safe water situation in most parts of the basins, but first-order unit-catchments need more attention due to high WSI values being able to compromise downstream water use.

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Assessment of Climate Change-Induced Water Scarcity Risk by Using a Coupled System Dynamics and Bayesian Network Modeling Approaches

Dehghani,

Massah Bavani,

Roozbahani

et al. 2024

Water Resour Manage

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The water scarcity risk induced by climate change is contributing to a sequence of hydrological and socioeconomic impacts. Certain numbers of related impacts are locked in already and are expected to be much greater in the future. So, there is still a lack of understanding of its dynamics, origin, propagation, and the mutual interaction of its drivers. In recent years, several model-based approaches have been introduced to tackle the complexity, dynamics, and uncertainty of water scarcity specifically. However, the coupled modeling while addressing different aspects of the risk of water scarcity under the climate change scenarios has been rarely done. For bridging this gap, in this research, the combination of complementary System Dynamics modeling and Bayesian Network was applied to Qazvin Plain in Iran with five AOGCM models under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios (126 and 585). Key findings of this research show: 1) Baseline risk assessment indicates a low probability of water scarcity; however, in the future 30-year time horizon with continuous change in hazard, vulnerability, and exposure for SSP126, the risk fell in the extreme category with an average probability of 41%. Under SSP585, the risk varies between extreme and high categories with an average probability of 47%. 2) Economic development, particularly regional gross domestic product (RGDP) in 2045–2054 in SSP585 can diminish the negative projected consequences of climate change and therefore investments in adaptation policies could offset negative consequences, highlighting the role of economic growth in climate resilience. 3) It is projected that crop yield and income will receive the largest negative effects due to cutting back the agriculture area. 4) Considering the interplay of climate change, economic development, and water extraction policies is essential for the design, operation, and management of water-related activities. The proposed integrated methodology provides a comprehensive framework for understanding climate change-induced water scarcity risks, their drivers, and potential consequences. This approach facilitates adaptive decision-making to address the evolving challenges posed by climate change.

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Towards an integrated system modeling of water scarcity with projected changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions

Cited by 11 publications

References 46 publications

Assessment of various types of household water consumption based on critical consumption behaviours using a novel criterion in metropolitan cities

Assessment of various types of household water consumption based on critical consumption behaviours using a novel criterion in metropolitan cities

Uncertainties in Water Scarcity Index due to water use and climate changes: Case of two Legal Amazon watersheds

Assessment of Climate Change-Induced Water Scarcity Risk by Using a Coupled System Dynamics and Bayesian Network Modeling Approaches

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