Towards an ecosystem model of infectious disease

Abstract

Increasingly intimate associations between human society and the natural environment are driving the emergence of novel pathogens, with devastating consequences for humans and animals alike. Prior to emergence, these pathogens exist within complex ecological systems that are characterized by trophic interactions between parasites, their hosts, and the environment.Predicting how disturbance to these ecological systems places people and animals at risk from emerging pathogens-and the best ways to manage this-remains a significant challenge.Predictive systems ecology models are powerful tools for the reconstruction of ecosystem function but have yet to be considered for modeling infectious disease. Part of this stems from a mistaken tendency to forget about the role that pathogens play in structuring the abundance and interactions of the free-living species favored by systems ecologists. Here, we explore how developing and applying these more complete systems ecology models at a landscape scale would greatly enhance our understanding of the reciprocal interactions between parasites, pathogens and the environment, placing zoonoses in an ecological context, while identifying key variables and simplifying assumptions that underly pathogen host switching and animal-tohuman spillover risk. As well as transforming our understanding of disease ecology, this would also allow us to better direct resources in preparation for future pandemics.

Viruses of Atlantic Bonefish (Albula vulpes) in Florida and the Caribbean show geographic patterns consistent with population declines

“…Emerging pathogens are responsible for some of the most widespread and impactful diseases of wildlife (Cunningham et al 2017 ; Hassell et al 2021 ; McCallum 2012 ; Scheele et al 2019 ), including diseases of wild fishes (Chapman et al 2021 ). For example, wild stocks of Mediterranean Dusky Grouper ( Epinephelus marginatus ) and Golden Grouper ( E. costae ) have experienced declines from repeated lethal epidemics of viral nervous necrosis, caused by the endemic red-spotted grouper nervous necrosis virus ( Nodaviridae : Betanodavirus ) (Boukedjouta et al 2020 ), cyprinid herpesviruses ( Alloherpesviridae : Cyprinivirus ) likely caused the collapse of the Common Carp ( Cyprinus carpio ) fishery in the Upper Mississippi River, USA (Gibson-Reinemer et al 2017 ), and viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus ( Rhabdoviridae : Novirhabdovirus ) has emerged globally, causing widespread mortality and population declines in both freshwater and marine systems, including economically important recreational fisheries (Escobar et al 2018 ).…”

A strategy to assess spillover risk of bat SARS-related coronaviruses in Southeast Asia

“…Furthermore, we did not account for differences in vulnerability among populations, communities, or individuals. However, our analyses have public health value in that the maps can be used to conduct more cost-effective field surveys for viral discovery programs, guide human surveillance to identify clusters of cases of a new CoV infection earlier and help prevent spread, and guide targeted epidemiological studies of small-scale processes that increase spillover risk [95][96][97] . Our analysis pipeline and framework are based on open-source code and can therefore serve as a resource to update and modify spillover risk maps and estimates as new data become available.…”

Experimental habitat fragmentation disrupts host–parasite interaction over decades via life‐cycle bottlenecks

“…The sensitivity of parasite species with complex life cycles to habitat fragmentation could have dire implications for fragmented ecosystems with increased fire intensity and frequency under climate change (Carlson et al, 2017). Finally, future studies should also examine the impacts of fragmentation and fire on within‐host parasite community dynamics (Hassell et al, 2021).…”