Towards an automatic early warning system of flood hazards based on precipitation forecast: the case of the  Miño River (NW Spain)

González-Cao, José; García-Feal, Orlando; Fernández-Nóvoa, Diego; Domínguez, José M.

doi:10.5194/nhess-19-2583-2019

Cited by 25 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 27 publications

(31 reference statements)

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“…The impact of climate change in terms of water levels within the estuary is nonlinear [26,27]. Indeed, an increase of the present ESL of 2.9 (scenario S01) to 3.6 m (scenario S08) results in different water level rise values along the estuary, considering only the hydrodynamic behavior.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A specific monitoring campaign [15] involving water level measurements was carried out at six different points in 2006 (points VP1 to VP6 in Figure 1). At the locations of Tui and Goian, coincident with continuous monitoring gauge stations of Galicia, Spain [27], water level measurements for the year 2019 were used. Different calibration strategies, involving different measurement points and periods, were analyzed in order to select the strategy that leads to the minimum cost function.…”

Section: Automatic Calibration Proceduresmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hydro- and Morphodynamic Impacts of Sea Level Rise: The Minho Estuary Case Study

Melo

Pinho

Iglésias

et al. 2020

JMSE

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The understanding and anticipating of climate change impacts is one of the greatest challenges for humanity. It is already known that, until the end of the 21st century, the mean sea level (MSL) will rise at a global scale, but its effects at the local scale need to be further analyzed. In this context, a numerical modelling tool and a methodological approach for the river Minho estuary (NW of the Iberian Peninsula) are presented, to predict possible consequences of local MSL rise, considering the greenhouse emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Hydrodynamic and morphodynamic impacts were analyzed considering several driving factors, such as tides, sea level rise, storm surge, wave set-up, and different river flood peak discharges, taking into account their probabilities of occurrence. The model was calibrated using in-situ data and a data assimilation tool, the OpenDA, which automates this process, allowing to reach reliable results in a considerably short time when compared with traditional techniques. The results forecast that the predicted MSL rise will reduce the flow velocity magnitude and the sediment transport into the coastal platform but will aggravate the inundation risks along the estuarine banks. In the worst scenario (RCP 8.5) the water level near the river mouth of the estuary is expected to rise 0.20 m for 50 years return period ocean water rising, and 0.60 m for 100 years return period. It was also possible to identify that floods are the most important driver for the sediment transport along the estuary, while the tide effect in the morphodynamics is restricted to the downstream estuarine region. This work demonstrated the importance of the numerical modelling tools to better understand the effects of climate change at local scales through the representation of the estuarine hydrodynamic pattern evolution for future climate scenarios.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Automatic Calibration Proceduresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydro- and Morphodynamic Impacts of Sea Level Rise: The Minho Estuary Case Study

Melo

Pinho

Iglésias

et al. 2020

JMSE

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“…Early Warning Systems (EWSs) are one of the methods and tools to increase urban resilience to geomorphological hazards. These systems are fundamental for disaster management and adaptation, and the preparation of response strategies, and are becoming increasingly used at the national and regional scales (Chikalamo et al, 2020;Corral et al, 2019;González-Cao et al, 2019;Harilal et al, 2019;Hofmann & Schüttrumpf, 2019;Krzhizhanovskaya et al, 2011;Ma et al, 2019;Parker, 2017;Rosi et al, 2015;Segoni et al, 2018). To be useful at the urban scale, EWSs should be implemented incorporating (1) geomorphologically based mapping; (2) an assessment of landslide-flood critical areas at the basin and local scales; (3) an integrated geodatabase for the management of base data and critical area mapping; (4) IOT (internet of things) networks of urban gauge-sensors, realized by taking into consideration the overall features of the specific catchments or urban areas (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geomorphology of landslide–flood-critical areas in hilly catchments and urban areas for EWS (Feltrino Stream and Lanciano town, Abruzzo, Central Italy)

et al. 2020

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Urban and small catchment landslides and floods are common types of hazards caused by intense rainfall. The detailed geomorphological mapping and analysis of the superficial hydrographic network are fundamental tools to assess the geo-hydrologically critical areas. In this study, the Feltrino Stream and Lanciano area (Adriatic coastal-hills) were investigated through a basinscale and urban-scale geomorphological analysiswhich incorporated temperature-rainfall and morphometric analyses, and the acquisition of geomorphological and hazard data, integrated with geomorphological fieldwork and mapping. The creation of a geodatabase and the data overlay led to assess the landslide-flood critical areas through geomorphology-based matrices. This study aimed to define the distribution of landslide-flood historical/recent events and related critical areas for the realization of an urban EWS, composed of a network of nine gauges, integrating the existing regional monitoring network. It defined a local alert system for landslide-flood and could support real-time communication for civil protection purposes.

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“…In this framework, EWSs are fundamental tools for disaster (e.g., floods, landslides) management, adaptation, and the preparation of response strategies. They can be based either on statistical analyses of rainfall conditions associated with flood events, or definition of rainfall thresholds, or rainfall forecasts [22][23][24][25], as well as on the definition of flood susceptibility [26][27][28], and on mathematical prediction models [29][30][31]. EWSs are becoming increasingly popular from the national to the regional scale (e.g., ITalert-the Italian EWS system, expected by the end of 2020; Allarmeteo Service, http: //allarmeteo.regione.abruzzo.it/; Allerta Meteo Service, https://allertameteo.regione.emilia-romagna.it/; and CFR Toscana, http://www.cfr.toscana.it/; the regional-scale EWSs for the Abruzzo, Emilia Romagna, and Toscana regions, respectively).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geomorphology-Based Analysis of Flood Critical Areas in Small Hilly Catchments for Civil Protection Purposes and Early Warning Systems: The Case of the Feltrino Stream and the Lanciano Urban Area (Abruzzo, Central Italy)

Piacentini

Carabella

Boccabella

et al. 2020

Water

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This work is based on a drainage basin-scale geomorphological investigation combined with flood modeling. It is focused on the assessment of flood critical areas for the implementation of a geomorphology-based urban Early Warning System (EWS) in the urban area of Lanciano and the Feltrino Stream basin (a minor coastal basin of the Abruzzo hills, Central Italy). This area was investigated by combining: pre-existing geological, geomorphological, and hazard data and new detailed field surveys and mapping of geomorphological and hydrographical features (superficial and buried natural and urban stream network). The study was integrated with 2D flood numerical modeling for verifying the expected flooded areas and calibrating the critical areas. All the collected data were integrated into a geodatabase, and an expert-based approach through a geomorphology-based matrix allowed us to define the main categories of flood critical areas. The assessment of the critical areas supported the emplacement of a network of rainfall, temperature, and flood gauges. The geodatabase, the derived critical areas, and the gauge network contributed to set up an urban EWS, integrated with the regional forecast-based warning system. This system provides combined forecast-based, rainfall threshold-based, and flood monitoring-based alerts for floods. It incorporates communication tools for civil protection management. Finally, the EWS provides a tool for civil protection purposes and for the management of flood critical areas and the mitigation of the related risks by local authorities and will be integrated with sensors related to other hazards (i.e., landslides, wind, etc.).

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Towards an automatic early warning system of flood hazards based on precipitation forecast: the case of the Miño River (NW Spain)

Cited by 25 publications

References 27 publications

Hydro- and Morphodynamic Impacts of Sea Level Rise: The Minho Estuary Case Study

Hydro- and Morphodynamic Impacts of Sea Level Rise: The Minho Estuary Case Study

Geomorphology of landslide–flood-critical areas in hilly catchments and urban areas for EWS (Feltrino Stream and Lanciano town, Abruzzo, Central Italy)

Geomorphology-Based Analysis of Flood Critical Areas in Small Hilly Catchments for Civil Protection Purposes and Early Warning Systems: The Case of the Feltrino Stream and the Lanciano Urban Area (Abruzzo, Central Italy)

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