Towards Adaptive Water Management—Optimizing River Water Diversion at the Basin Scale under Future Environmental Conditions

Abstract

The degree of success of river water diversion planning decisions is affected by uncertain environmental conditions. The adaptive water management framework incorporates this uncertainty at all stages of management. While the most effective form of adaptive management requires experimental comparison of practices, the use of optimization modeling is convenient for conducting exploratory simulations to evaluate the spatiotemporal implications of current water diversion management decisions under future environmental changes. We demonstrate such an explorative modeling approach by assessing river water availability for diversion in a river basin in Northern Spain under two future environmental scenarios that combine climate and land use change. An evolutionary optimization method is applied to identify and reduce trade-offs with Supporting Ecosystem Services linked to environmental flow requirements for relevant local freshwater species. The results show that seasonal shifts and spatial heterogeneity of diversion volumes are the main challenges for the future diversion management of the Pas River. Basin-scale diversion management should take into account the seasonal planning horizon and the setting of tailored diversion targets at the local-level to promote the implementation of adaptive management. The presented assessment can help with strategic placement of diversion points and timing of withdrawals, but it also provides deeper insight into how optimisation can support decision-making in managing water diversion under uncertain future environmental conditions.