Towards a theory of abduction based on conditionals

Abstract

Abduction is considered the most powerful, but also the most controversially discussed type of inference. Based on an analysis of Peirce’s retroduction, Lipton’s Inference to the Best Explanation and other theories, a new theory of abduction is proposed. It considers abduction not as intrinsically explanatory but as intrinsically conditional: for a given fact, abduction allows one to infer a fact that implies it. There are three types of abduction: Selective abduction selects an already known conditional whose consequent is the given fact and infers that its antecedent is true. Conditional-creative abduction creates a new conditional in which the given fact is the consequent and a defined fact is the antecedent that implies the given fact. Propositional-conditional-creative abduction assumes that the given fact is implied by a hitherto undefined fact and thus creates a new conditional with a new proposition as antecedent. The execution of abductive inferences is specified by theory-specific patterns. Each pattern consists of a set of rules for both generating and justifying abductive conclusions and covers the complete inference process. Consequently, abductive inferences can be formalised iff the whole pattern can be formalised. The empirical consistency of the proposed theory is demonstrated by a case study of Semmelweis' research on puerperal fever.

Pancosmorio (world limit) theory of the sustainability of human migration and settlement in space

“…The results of research into the beforementioned questions are presented in Section 2 as a pancosmorio theory of human sustainability. The theory is developed based on the science of ecological thermodynamics theory using the methodology of abductive reasoning (Pfister, 2022). A description of the theory (Section 2.1) is provided that has as its factual consequent: i) there are conditions from which human life has evolved, ii) such conditions are required to sustain human life at its current level of growth, and iii) the availability of such conditions to humans defines the limit of their world.…”

An exercise in scientific problem‐solving: Illustrating the utility of the principles of the Sydney Declaration

“…According to Pfister, a full theory of abduction lies in understanding the entirety of the reasoning process, which includes discovery, hypothesis generation and justification [15]. As described above, the initial stages of scientific problem‐solving incorporated observation and iterations of logical reasoning (e.g., abductive reasoning).…”

“…The structure of an abductive argument based on conditional or implication proposed by Pfister is useful to describe the generation of the above stated hypothesis [15]. The argument may take the present form:…”

“…More in detail, the abductive reasoning phase led to the working hypothesis that during the night, the prisoner had been able to de- suddenly becomes relevant to the creation of the hypothesis intended to explain or imply the observed fact G. Hence, the three premises lead to a conclusion that not only generates the explaining or implying fact or hypothesis A that the upper part was hidden in the bed but also creates the conditional (A → G). This is a creative abduction that Pfister qualifies as a propositional-conditional type [15].…”