Towards a Synergetic and Probabilistic Approach to Cross-Border Migration

Abstract

The cross-border migration has multiple causes, variety of manifestations and potentials for diverging effects. Paradoxically, the mainstream theories on the phenomenon are one-dimensional and deterministic. The effort to resolve the contradiction proceeds in four steps. First, mainstream theories of international migration are scrutinized for potential contributions to a synergetic and probabilistic conceptual framework. Second, the strategy for building the framework is outlined by elaborating on the components of the migration chain. Third, the components are integrated in a conceptual whole reflecting the multidimensionality and the variability of the migration's structures and processes. Fourth, the capacities of the integrated framework to guide synergetic and probabilistic descriptions, explanations and forecasting of cross-border migration are put under scrutiny. The conceptual developments are tested with a view to the needs for efficient management of the cross-border migration flows.