Towards a scientific understanding of the risk from extreme space weather

Hapgood, M. A.

doi:10.1016/j.asr.2010.02.007

Cited by 123 publications

(103 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…However, it is based on the measurement of approximately 2 years and there is a large uncertainty. We need more long-term data as noted by Hapgood (2011).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There are several methods to estimate the probability of occurrence of the extreme space weather events (Hapgood 2011;Love 2012;Riley 2012;Kataoka 2013). Here, we used a method shown by Riley (2012) and Kataoka (2013) to estimate the probability of occurrence of the events exceeding some critical value.…”

Section: Probability Occurrence Of Gics and Electric Field Observationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimation of geomagnetically induced currents based on the measurement data of a transformer in a Japanese power network and geoelectric field observations

Watari

2015

Earth Planet Sp

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Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) have the potential to cause electric power blackouts. Hence, it is important to study the effects of GICs produced by intense geomagnetic storms. The measurements of GICs were conducted at the Memanbetsu substation, Hokkaido, between December 2005 and March 2008. We obtain the complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF) of the measured GICs and the empirical equation to estimate GICs using the GIC data and geoelectric field observation data. GICs associated with the past intense geomagnetic storms, e.g., the March 13-15 storm and the October 29-30, 2003 storm, are estimated.

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“…However, it is based on the measurement of approximately 2 years and there is a large uncertainty. We need more long-term data as noted by Hapgood (2011).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Probability Occurrence Of Gics and Electric Field Observationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of geomagnetically induced currents based on the measurement data of a transformer in a Japanese power network and geoelectric field observations

Watari

2015

Earth Planet Sp

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“…The high GCR flux has implications for satellites, space craft and aviation (e.g., Hapgood (2010)) due to their high energies, making the ability to predict times of greater fluxes of cosmic rays critical for mission planning and reducing such hazards. It is also important to study the propagation and modulation of GCRs throughout the heliosphere for the purposes of long-term reconstructions of solar parameters (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The 22-Year Hale Cycle in Cosmic Ray Flux – Evidence for Direct Heliospheric Modulation

2013

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The ability to predict times of greater galactic cosmic ray (GCR) fluxes is important for reducing the hazards caused by these particles to satellite communications, aviation, or astronauts. The 11-year solar cycle variation in cosmic rays is highly correlated with the strength of the heliospheric magnetic field. Differences in GCR flux during alternate solar cycles yield a 22-year cycle, known as the Hale Cycle, which is thought to be due to different particle drift patterns when the northern solar pole has predominantly positive (denoted a qA>0 cycle) or negative (qA<0) polarities. This results in the onset of the peak cosmic ray flux at Earth occurring earlier during qA>0 cycles than for qA<0 cycles and hence the peak being more domed for qA>0 and more sharply peaked for qA<0. In this study, we demonstrate that properties of the large-scale heliospheric magnetic field are different during the declining phase of the qA<0 and qA>0 solar cycles, when the difference in GCR flux is most apparent. This suggests that particle drifts may not be the sole mechanism responsible for the Hale Cycle in GCR flux at Earth. However, it is also demonstrated that these polarity-dependent heliospheric differences are evident during the space-age but much less clear in earlier data: using geomagnetic reconstructions, it is shown that for the period of 1905 -1965, alternate polarities do not give as significant a difference during the declining phase of the solar cycle. Thus we suggest that the 22-year cycle in cosmic ray flux is at least partly the result of direct modulation by the heliospheric magnetic field and that this effect may be primarily limited to the grand solar maximum of the space-age.

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“…Applied analysis of the storms enables the assessment and mitigation of space weatherrelated hazards, for example, on satellite systems and orbits, satellite communication and navigation, overthe-horizon radio communication, geophysical surveys, electric power grids, and oil and gas metal pipe lines (e.g., Daglis 2004). Of particular concern are the effects associated with rare but extremely intense geomagnetic storms (e.g., Hapgood 2011;Cannon et al 2013;Cliver and Dietrich 2013). A Carrington type event of 1859 (e.g., Carrington 1859) at present times, for example, can cause very serious social and economic impacts in the High-Tech society (e.g., Baker et al 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new parameter of geomagnetic storms for the severity of space weather

et al. 2016

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Using the continuous Dst data available since 1957 and H component data for the Carrington space weather event of 1859, the paper shows that the mean value of Dst during the main phase of geomagnetic storms, called mean Dst MP , is a unique parameter that can indicate the severity of space weather. All storms having high mean Dst MP (≤−250 nT), which corresponds to high amount of energy input in the magnetosphere-ionosphere system in short duration, are found associated with severe space weather events that caused all known electric power outages and telegraph system failures.

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Towards a scientific understanding of the risk from extreme space weather

Cited by 123 publications

References 28 publications

Estimation of geomagnetically induced currents based on the measurement data of a transformer in a Japanese power network and geoelectric field observations

Estimation of geomagnetically induced currents based on the measurement data of a transformer in a Japanese power network and geoelectric field observations

The 22-Year Hale Cycle in Cosmic Ray Flux – Evidence for Direct Heliospheric Modulation

A new parameter of geomagnetic storms for the severity of space weather

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