Towards a new party system

Abstract

The results of the 2009 Bundestag election and subsequent Land elections suggest that the German party system is changing fundamentally. A few facts suffice to corroborate this statement: Volatility has now reached levels that were last recorded in the 1950s; turnout in national elections has reached an all-time low; the two large parties have had unprecedentedly poor results in the Bundestag elections while all three smaller parties reached more than 10 percent. The article shows that German catch-all parties are about to lose their hold on the electorate and, as a result, can no longer rely on being the senior parties of government. The article analyses these changes systematically using a range of quantitative indicators covering the entire post-war period. It shows a seminal erosion of the forces which have stabilized the German party system in earlier decades and discusses the repercussions for the functioning of German party democracy.

Local candidate lists

“…the organizational features and institutional role of local lists; van Biezen and Rashkova's (2012) study of the interrelation between state regulation and the organizational dynamics of party systems;Poguntke's (2012) analysis of German catch-all parties; and the work ofLowery et al …”

Where is the middle? Considering the socio-political centre in Germany

“…Voter loyalties and policies are fluid and the variety of contestants has grown. Instructive analyses of 'transformation' and 'crisis' (Poguntke, 2001;Saalfeld, 2002) or the durability of parties and coalition formation in Germany (Lees, 2011;Oberreuter 2011;Poguntke, 2014;Saalfeld, 2000) tended to view change as evolutionary. An authentic transformation unfolded from 2015, when then centrist parties and EU institutions struggled to mobilise the public as crises spurred estrangement from both.…”

Los ciclos políticos y el cambio en el sistema de partidos mexicano. Las elecciones de 2018 en retrospectiva

“…Esta condición alude a las interacciones (fragmentación y polarización) como los elementos que evidencian el cambio (Sartori, 2005). Es decir, un tipo distinto de interacción, manifestada por cambios en la fragmentación y/o en la polarización, alterará la estructura de competencia, por lo tanto, cambios en el sistema de partidos (Poguntke, 2012;Nwokora y Pelizzo, 2018). De acuerdo con ello, Mair (2002: 51) indica que 1 «el cambio en el sistema de partidos ocurre cuando el sistema de partidos se transforma de un tipo a otro».…”

“…Dichos elementos identifican las características cualitativas y cuantitativas de la estructura de competencia. En este sentido, la investigación analiza cuatro variables del sistema: la competitividad y la concentración electoral (Ocaña y Oñate, 1999;Poguntke, 2012); la fragmentación electoral (Rae, 1967), medida por el F-Rae y el número efectivo de partidos (Laakso y Taagepera, 1979); la volatilidad electoral (Pedersen, 1983;Mainwaring y Zoco, 2007), y la polarización ideológica (Sartori, 2005; Ruiz Rodríguez y Otero Felipe, 2013). Además de dos elementos que tienen que ver con los efectos del comportamiento electoral en el sistema de partidos: la participación y los efectos del sistema electoral, como ocurre con la proporcionalidad electoral (Ocaña y Oñate, 1999: 228).…”