Towards a Comprehensive Framework for Regional Transportation Land Demand Forecasting: Empirical Study from Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

Abstract

China is currently experiencing rapid expansion in its transportation land. To promote sustainable land use, accurately estimating transportation land demand is crucial. This study aims to develop a comprehensive framework for urban transportation land forecasting within the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), providing support for optimizing regional land allocation. Employing methods such as meta-analysis, statistical analysis, and BP neural network analysis, this study forecasts the transportation land demand of 127 cities in the YREB. The study findings indicate that cities with high transportation land demand are mainly distributed in the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River. Moreover, the growth rate of transportation land in the upper reaches significantly outstrips that in the middle and lower reaches, suggesting a focus shift in transportation infrastructure construction toward the upper regions. Additionally, some cities within the YREB face a mismatch between the supply and demand of transportation land, necessitating proactive adjustments to their land supply plans to achieve a balance between supply and demand. The main contribution of this study is the development of a comprehensive and adaptable framework that guides the development of future strategies for optimal land allocation by forecasting transportation land demand at a regional level.