Toward the 2-degree target: Evaluating co-benefits of road transportation in China

Abstract

Background: Co-benefit assessments on health and economic impacts of climate change mitigation towards the 2-degree target are lacking, especially from a sectoral perspective.Objectives: This study aims to (1) evaluate PM2.5 pollution-related health impacts on China's road transport sector at both national and provincial levels toward the 2-degree target by 2050; (2) uncover the contribution from the road transport sector compared with that of all sectors; (3) distinguish the contribution from climate change mitigation actions compared with air pollution control oriented actions in road transport sector; and (4) identify the heterogeneous influences at provincial level. Methods: Health and economic impacts are estimated using an integrated approach that combines the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) model, the IMED/CGE (Integrated Model of Energy, Environment and Economy for Sustainable Development/computable general equilibrium) model and IMED/HEL (Health) model. Five scenarios are proposed based on climate change mitigation and stringency of air pollution control policy.Results: China's road transport sector could contribute to around 10.6% of total PM2.5 concentration reduction, equivalent to 10.8% of the monetized health benefits obtained from achieving the 2-degree target by all sectors. Populous provinces with more 4 manufacturing industries would benefit more. Meanwhile, climate change mitigation action alone can lead to 70% reduction of health impacts by applying air pollution control measures .Conclusions: This research has implications for other emerging economies and those reluctant to engage in climate action. Government should adopt a more flexible policy approach to take into account regional pollution levels and abatement options.

Health and related economic benefits associated with reduction in air pollution during COVID-19 outbreak in 367 cities in China

“…The non-market VSL lost was monetized to capture the impact of the change of air pollution due to the COVID-19 outbreak, based on the method applied by West et al (2013) ( West et al, 2013 ). Details of this method have been described elsewhere ( Kim et al, 2020 , Tian et al, 2018 , Tian et al, 2019 , Xie et al, 2016 , Xie et al, 2018 , Xie et al, 2019 ). Although the value of life was reported to range from 8.2 to 31.1 million USD in a previous study ( Matus et al, 2012 ), we adopted here a much lower number, $250,000 USD based on willingness to pay estimates in empirical Chinese research ( Jin, 2017 ).…”

The 2020 China report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change

“…Mounting evidence suggests that the health cost of inaction on climate change is high, 76 and that the health benefits of climate change mitigation alone could far exceed the mitigation cost in many other sectors and in many regions in China. 77 , 78 The financial case is clear, with cost-effective interventions available to allow increased ambition to address climate change for health, in China. The seven indicators in this section are divided into two domains: first the economic effect of climate change and its mitigation (indicator 4.1); and second the economics of the transition to zero-carbon economies, including investments in a low-carbon economy, as well as pricing greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels (indicator 4.2).…”

Costs and health benefits of the rural energy transition to carbon neutrality in China

“…IMED|HEL model includes two modules of health impact and monetization analysis, which calculates the burden of disease and the economic burden of health impacts related to PM 2.5 concentrations, respectively. This model has been applied widely and documented well in different scales of policy research [46][47][48] , whose input data includes exposure or concentration levels of air pollution, the exposed population and exposure-response functions (ERFs) from the latest Global Exposure Mortality Model 49 . This model aims to quantify the number of PM 2.5 -associated health co-benefits triggered by the energy transition among rural residents at the provincial level, such as PM 2.5 -associated premature death.…”