Toward Near-Real-Time Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in Aotearoa New Zealand

Tradowsky, Jordis S.; Bird, Leroy; Kreft, Peter V.; Rosier, Suzanne M.; Soltanzadeh, Iman; Stone, Dáithí A.; Bodeker, G. E.

doi:10.1175/bams-d-21-0236.1

Cited by 12 publications

(6 citation statements)

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“…For the characterization and detection of the 2018 drought we used two widely accepted indicators, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI; Mckee et al, 1993) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI; Vicente-Serrano et al, 2014), and one alternative method based on climate networks (Tsonis et al, 2006;Donges et al, 2009). Two aggregation periods, three and six months, were selected, so that two types of droughts, could be considered, meteorological (SPEI3) and agricultural (SPEI6) (Heim, 2002;Zampieri et al, 2017).…”

Section: Drought Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective

Rousi

Fink²,

Andersen³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Abstract. The summer of 2018 was an extraordinary season in climatological terms for northern and central Europe, bringing simultaneous, widespread, and concurrent heat and drought extremes in large parts of the continent with extensive impacts on agriculture, forests, water supply, and socio-economic sector. We present a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe with a particular focus on Germany. The heatwave first affected Scandinavia by mid-July, shifted towards central Europe in late July, while Iberia was primarily affected in early August. The atmospheric circulation was characterized by strongly positive blocking anomalies over Europe, in combination with a positive summer North Atlantic Oscillation and a double jet stream configuration before the initiation of the heatwave. In terms of possible precursors common to previous European heatwaves, the Eurasian double jet structure and a tripolar sea-surface temperature anomaly over the North Atlantic were identified already in spring. While in the early stages over Scandinavia the air masses at mid- and upper-levels were often of remote, maritime origin, at later stages over Iberia the air masses had primarily a local to regional origin. The drought affected Germany the most, starting with warmer than average conditions in spring, associated with enhanced latent heat release that initiated a severe depletion of soil moisture. During summer, a continued precipitation deficit exacerbated the problem, leading to hydrological and agricultural drought. A probabilistic attribution assessment of the heatwave in Germany showed that the prolonged heat has become more likely due to global warming. Regarding future projections, an extreme summer such as this of 2018 is expected to occur every two out of three years in Europe under a 1.5 °C warmer world and virtually every single year under 2 °C of global warming. With such large-scale and impactful extreme events becoming more frequent and intense under anthropogenic climate change, comprehensive and multi-faceted studies like the one presented here quantify the multitude of effects and provide valuable information as basis for adaptation and mitigation strategies.

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Section: Drought Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Further, a climate network approach was used (Tsonis et al, 2006;Donges et al, 2009) to detect drought conditions in Germany. In a climate network, high spatial coherence of weather conditions is characterized by high values of the node degree measure that accounts for pairwise statistical similarity (e.g.…”

Section: Drought Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective

Rousi

Fink²,

Andersen³

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…It can also provide risk information on climate change and thus inform policy-making for climate change adaptation [11]. Europe [12], the USA [13], New Zealand [14] and South Africa [15] have been developing their own practical real-time attribution services. This study will benefit the establishment of real-time attribution services in China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid attribution of the record-breaking heatwave event in North China in June 2023 and future risks

Qian,

Ye,

Jiang

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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A record-breaking heatwave event occurred in North China from 22 to 24 June 2023, with temperatures >40 °C at many meteorological stations. This marked the first time that Beijing had reached or exceeded 40 °C for three consecutive days. However, the extent to which such exceptional heatwave events are related to anthropogenic climate change remains unclear. It is also unclear how frequent and intense such strong heatwave events will be in the future. We carried out a rapid attribution analysis to address these questions. Our findings show that the return period of this three-day heatwave event in North China is about 111 years (24.3, +∞) at the 2023 climate state. Both the empirical and coupled model approaches consistently showed that the intensity of 2023-like three-day heatwave events has significantly increased by at least 1.0 °C (range 0.8 °C–1.3 °C) due to anthropogenic climate change. Future projections indicate that 2023-like events in North China are likely to occur at least 1.6 (range 1.3–2.1) times throughout the remainder of this century and be 0.5 °C (range 0.2 °C–0.8 °C) more intense than those under the 2023 climate even if carbon neutrality is achieved based on the very low CO2 emissions scenario simulations. For the intermediate emissions scenario, the occurrence probability of 2023-like events in the North China region by the end of this century will be 5.5 (range 4.9–6.3) times those under the 2023 climate, with an intensity 2.9 °C (range 2.4 °C–3.1 °C) higher than those under the 2023 climate. These findings highlight the need for adaptation measures to address the occurrence of 2023-like three-day heatwaves in North China in June even if carbon neutrality is achieved.

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“…This change in both the severity and frequency of EWEs has been observed recently (Philip et al ., 2021) and it impacts people and the economy in various ways, hence it is necessary to understand and estimate the impact of anthropogenic warming on such extremes (Douris and Kim, 2021). Within New Zealand extreme event attribution and the economic risks associated with EWEs is an active area of research (Frame et al ., 2020; Stone et al ., 2021; Tradowsky et al ., 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing temperature extremes in New Zealand and their connection to synoptic circulation features

Thomas

McDonald

Renwick

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Extreme temperature events (ETEs) have evolved alongside the warming climate over most parts of the world. This study provides a statistical quantification of how human influences have changed the frequencies of extreme temperatures in New Zealand, depending on the synoptic weather types. We use the ensembles under pre‐industrial conditions (natural scenarios with no human‐induced changes) and present‐day conditions (anthropogenic scenarios) from the weather@home regional climate model. The ensemble simulations under these two scenarios are used to identify how human influences have impacted the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures based on their connection to different large‐scale circulation patterns derived using self‐organizing maps (SOMs). Over New Zealand, an average two to three fold rise in frequencies of extremes occurs irrespective of seasons due to anthropogenic influence with a mean temperature increase close to 1°C. For some synoptic situations, the frequency of extremes are especially enhanced; in particular, for low‐pressure centres to the northeast of New Zealand where the frequency of occurrence of daily temperature extremes has increased by a factor of 7 between anthropogenic and natural ensembles for the winter season, though these synoptic patterns rarely occur. For low‐pressure centres to the northwest of New Zealand, we observe high temperatures frequently in both anthropogenic and natural ensembles which we expect is probably associated with warm air advection from the Tropics. The frequency of occurrence of high temperatures in these synoptic patterns has also increased by a factor of 2 between the natural and anthropogenic ensembles. For these synoptic states, the extremes are observed in the North Island and along the east coast of the country with the highest temperature along the Canterbury coast and Northland. The change between the natural and anthropogenic ensembles is largest on the west coast along the Southern Alps for all the synoptic circulation types.

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Toward Near-Real-Time Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in Aotearoa New Zealand

Cited by 12 publications

References 0 publications

The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective

The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective

Rapid attribution of the record-breaking heatwave event in North China in June 2023 and future risks

Increasing temperature extremes in New Zealand and their connection to synoptic circulation features

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