Toward More Rational Decision Making

Gottfredson, Michael R.; Gottfredson, Don M.

doi:10.1007/978-1-4757-9954-5_10

Cited by 69 publications

(132 citation statements)

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Decision making takes place at every step of the criminal justice system, with discretion being an inevitable part of the decision-making process [83]. Parole boards have a great deal of discretion with their decision making and are influenced by a host of criteria [83], which as Hanser [84] (2010) notes, may not necessarily be reflected by statute or official agency guidelines. Parole boards are essentially tasked with predicting future behavior—the likelihood that an offender will reoffend—and the ability of offenders to be responsive to rehabilitation and community supervision [60,83,84].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Parole boards have a great deal of discretion with their decision making and are influenced by a host of criteria [83], which as Hanser [84] (2010) notes, may not necessarily be reflected by statute or official agency guidelines. Parole boards are essentially tasked with predicting future behavior—the likelihood that an offender will reoffend—and the ability of offenders to be responsive to rehabilitation and community supervision [60,83,84]. The implications of parole board decision making cannot be understated, as they are responsible for balancing the safety of the larger community with individual freedom.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mental Health Risk Factors and Parole Decisions: Does Inmate Mental Health Status Affect Who Gets Released

Houser

Vîlcică

Saum

et al. 2019

IJERPH

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Parole decision—the decision to release an incarcerated individual from prison conditionally—is one of the most critical decisions across justice systems around the world. The decision carries with it significant consequences: for the freedom of the individual awaiting release (the parolee); for the safety of the community in which they will return; and for the correctional system overall, especially its organizational capacity. The current study attempts to add to the parole decision-making literature by specifically analyzing the role that mental health factors may play in explaining parole decisions. Research to date is inconclusive on whether or not mental illness is a risk factor for criminal behavior; despite this, individuals with mental health problems generally fare worse on risk assessment tools employed in justice decisions. The study relies on a 1000+ representative sample of parole-eligible individuals in Pennsylvania, United States. To increase reliability, the analyses test for several mental health factors based on information from different sources (i.e., self-reported mental health history; risk assessment tool employed by the Parole Board; and risk assessment tool employed by the Department of Corrections). To address validity concerns, the study controls for other potential correlates of parole decisions. Although the multivariate models explained a considerable amount of variance in parole decisions, the inclusion of mental health variables added relatively little to model fit. The results provide insights into an understudied area of justice decision making, suggesting that despite the stigmatization of mental illness among criminal justice populations, parole board members in Pennsylvania, United States, appear to follow official guidelines rather than to consider more subjective notions that poor mental health should negate parole release.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mental Health Risk Factors and Parole Decisions: Does Inmate Mental Health Status Affect Who Gets Released

Houser

Vîlcică

Saum

et al. 2019

IJERPH

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“…For instance, scholars tend to agree that despite there being no legal distinction between rapes committed by strangers and rapes committed by acquaintances, these are often treated differently in the criminal justice system (Bryden and Lengnick, 1997). Rapes perpetrated by strangers are perceived as more serious, more likely to progress through the justice system, more likely to result in conviction, and more likely to receive harsher sentences than rapes perpetrated by someone known to the victim (Simon, 1996; Lovett and Kelly, 2009; see also Gottfredson and Gottfredson, 1988). Waterhouse et al.’s (2016) study of rape in a UK police force area found a conviction rate of 73% for stranger rape cases and 36% for acquaintance cases (see also, Grace et al., 1992; Gregory and Lees, 1996).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors Predicting Conviction in Stranger Rape Cases

2019

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Background: Despite there being no legal distinction between different types of rapes (e.g., those committed by strangers to the victim versus those committed by perpetrators known to the victim), stereotypical beliefs about rape have meant that these can be treated differently by the justice system. The aim is to explore the factors that predict juries’ decisions to convict or acquit in stranger rape cases. Methods : We measured the importance of a range of 20 perpetrator-, victim-, and offense-related factors in predicting outcomes for 394 stranger rape cases tried by a jury. A four-stage analytic process was employed: (a) Kendall’s tau-b measured intercorrelations among the factors (predictors); (b) Chi-square and Welch t -tests measured associations between factors and verdicts; (c) binary logistic regression measured the power of factors in predicting verdicts; and (d) Stein’s formula was used to cross-validate the model. Results: Jury verdicts were predicted by five offense-related factors and one victim-related factor. None of the perpetrator-related factors were significant predictors of convictions for stranger rape. Conclusion: The findings have potential implications for victims of stranger rape, as well as prosecution and courtroom policy. We show that if a perpetrator is identified and charged, the likelihood of securing a conviction by a jury is high for victims of stranger rape. We suggest that prosecutors could gather as much information as possible from victims about the factors found to be of importance to juries, and judges could instruct juries on assumptions about the characteristics of the offense in order to challenge incorrect beliefs and stereotypes. Ultimately, this could be used to encourage victims of stranger rape to report and testify in court.

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“…The criminology literature suggests that the decision to report a crime can be modeled in a rational-choice framework (Bowles et al 2009; Gottfredson et al 1988; Goudriaan 2006; Skogan 1984). Witnesses and victims weigh the costs and benefits of reporting and behave accordingly.…”

Section: Crime Reporting and Institutional Contextmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cooperating with the State: Evidence from Survey Experiments on Policing

et al. 2016

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We examine cooperation with the state using a series of survey experiments on policing conducted in late 2011 in Moscow, Russia, where distrust of the state is high and attempts to reform the police have been ineffective. Through various vignettes that place respondents in situations in which they are the witness or victim of a crime, we experimentally manipulate crime severity, identity of the perpetrator (whether the crime is committed by a police officer), monetary rewards, appeals to civic duty, and the opportunity cost of time spent reporting. Of these factors, crime severity and identity of the perpetrator are robustly associated with a propensity to report. Our research design and results contribute to a large literature on cooperation with the state by examining variables that may be more salient or function differently in countries with weak institutions than in developed democracies.

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Toward More Rational Decision Making

Cited by 69 publications

References 0 publications

Mental Health Risk Factors and Parole Decisions: Does Inmate Mental Health Status Affect Who Gets Released

Mental Health Risk Factors and Parole Decisions: Does Inmate Mental Health Status Affect Who Gets Released

Factors Predicting Conviction in Stranger Rape Cases

Cooperating with the State: Evidence from Survey Experiments on Policing

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