Toward Improved Model Capacities for Assessment of Climate Impacts on Coastal Bentho-Pelagic Food Webs and Ecosystem Services

Abstract

Global climate change is a key driver of change in coastal waters with clear effects on biological communities and marine ecosystems. Human activities in combination with climate change exert a tremendous pressure on marine ecosystems and threaten their integrity, structure, and functioning. The protection of these ecosystems is a major target of the 14th United Nations sustainable development goal “Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development.” However, due to the complexity of processes and interactions of stressors, the status assessment of ecosystems remains a challenge. Holistic food web models, including biological and environmental data, could provide a suitable basis to assess ecosystem health. Here, we review climate change impacts on different trophic levels of coastal ecosystems ranging from plankton to ecologically and economically important fish and shellfish species. Furthermore, we show different food web model approaches, their advantages and limitations. To effectively manage coastal ecosystems, we need both a detailed knowledge base of each trophic level and a holistic modeling approach for assessment and prediction of future scenarios on food web-scales. A new model approach with a seamless coupling of physical ocean models and food web models could provide a future tool for guiding ecosystem-based management.

A multi‐scenario analysis of climate impacts on plankton and fish stocks in northern seas

“…A knowledge base of each tropic level and a model approach with a seamless coupling of physical ocean models and food web models could therefore provide a tool for guiding ecosystem‐based management (Horn et al., 2021). Accounting for species interactions, dependencies between ecosystem components and feedback loops is also important to understand and manage ecosystems (Geary et al., 2020).…”

Temperature‐Dependence Assumptions Drive Projected Responses of Diverse Size‐Based Food Webs to Warming

“…Given the prevalence of feedbacks and the broad spatial and temporal scales on which food webs operate, models are necessary to project climate impacts on species, evaluate ecosystem‐based management under climate change, and assess the potential efficacy of mitigation strategies (Horn et al., 2021). However, food web models vary widely in structure and complexity and emphasize different ecological processes and levels of biological detail depending on the question motivating their development.…”

Plankton Abundance and its Nexus with Climatic and Water Quality Parameters in the Nile Tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) Broodfish Pond

“…Phytoplankton uptake inorganic nutrients and contribute to nutrient cycling when they die or are consumed by zooplankton (Ensign et al, 2014;Rasconi et al, 2015;Kürten et al, 2019). Zooplankton, which are heterotrophic organisms, feed on phytoplankton, regulating their populations and maintaining water clarity (Ahmed et al, 2016; Rasconi et al, 2017;Horn et al, 2021). The interactions between phytoplankton and zooplankton in ponds play a crucial role in providing a vital food source for various organisms, aiding in nutrient recycling, and establishing a balanced ecosystem that supports overall functioning and sustainability (Buczkowski, 1991;Kürten et al, 2019;Florescu et al, 2022).…”

“…Assessing the impact of climate change on the abundance of phytoplankton and zooplankton in pond water is crucial for several reasons. Phytoplankton and zooplankton play crucial roles in nutrient cycling, energy transfer, and overall ecosystem health (Kürten et al, 2019;Horn et al, 2021). Changes in their abundance can have far-reaching impacts on the entire food web, ecosystem productivity, and stability (Worm & Myers, 2003).…”