Toward Effective Response to Natural Disasters: A Data Science Approach

Abstract

Natural disasters can cause widespread damage to buildings and infrastructures and kill thousands of living beings. These events are difficult to be overcome both by the populations and by government authorities. Two challenging issues require in particular to be addressed: find an effective way to evacuate people first, and later to rebuild houses and other infrastructures. An adequate recovery strategy to evacuate people and start reconstructing damaged areas on a priority basis can then be a game changer allowing to overcome effectively those terrible circumstances. In this perspective, we here present DiReCT, an approach based on i) a dynamic optimization model designed to timely formulate an evacuation plan of an area struck by an earthquake, and ii) a decision support system, based on double deep Q Network, able to guide efficiently the reconstruction the affected areas. The latter works by considering both the resources available and the needs of the various stakeholders involved (e.g., residents social benefits and political priorities). The ground on which both the above solutions stand was a dedicated geographical data extraction algorithm, called "GisToGraph", especially developed for this purpose. To check applicability of the whole approach, we dovetailed it on the real use-case of the historical city center of L'Aquila (Italy) using detailed GIS data and information on urban land structure and buildings vulnerability. Several simulations were run on the underlining network generated. First, we ran experiments to safely evacuate in the shortest possible time as many people as possible from an endangered area towards a set of safe places. Then, using DDQN, we generated different reconstruction plans and selected the best ones considering both social benefits and political priorities of the building units. The described approaches are comprised in a more general data science framework delved to produce an effective response to natural disasters.