Tourism management for Antarctica.

Is it all going south? Four future scenarios for Antarctica

“…Analysis of tourism trends over the last five decades suggests further growth in tourism numbers over the next decade, accompanied by further diversification of the tourism product (Bastmeijer & Roura, 2004; Bertram & Stonehouse, 2007) and a greater volume of yacht-based tourism and individual (non-commercial) adventure tourism activities. Challenges arising from the growth and diversification of tourism include: an increased potential for devastating incidents and accidents (see for example, Republic of Liberia, 2009 and the Berserk 2011 expedition), resulting in the pressing need for closer collaboration between the different national Search and Rescue Coordination Centres responsible for operations in the Southern Ocean (Jabour, 2017) a greater probability of the introduction of non-native species or diseases (Hofman & Jatko, 2000; Pfeiffer & Peter, 2003) difficulties for ATCPs to regulate an increasingly diverse spectrum of tourist activities (Antarctic and Southern Ocean Coalition, 2005; ATCM, 2012) difficulties for IAATO to manage an increasingly diverse spectrum of tourist activities (ATCM, 2012; Haase, Lamers, & Amelung, 2009) gateway cities (that is, a coastal or island port able by its proximity to the Antarctic to benefit from and control access to Antarctic and Southern Ocean resources, including fishing, tourism and scientific support [Chua, Shah, Husin, & Rahman, 2015]) having to deal with waste brought back from Antarctica by tour operators (Bertram, 2005) gateway cities providing sufficient tourism infrastructure (including accommodation and other tourism services) during the peak tourism season (Swanson, Liggett, & Roldan, 2015) legal implications and duties imposed on port states (under UNCLOS, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea) and their consequences for gateway cities, particularly if memoranda of understanding on Port State Jurisdiction put more responsibility on the shoulders of gateway ports (Bertram, Muir and Stonehouse, 2007; Swanson et al, 2015).…”

“…On the supply side, the price and availability of fossil fuel (which is a significant component of operational costs), as well as the availability and continued seaworthiness of cruise ships (which needs to be considered, given that the fleet of vessels dominating the market at the moment is ageing; Bertram, 2007) are significant factors affecting the future development of Antarctic tourism. Supply might also be affected if overcrowding in certain parts of the Antarctic Peninsula causes a greater geographical dispersion of tourism operations.…”