Tourism and economic growth: A global study on Granger causality and wavelet coherence

Wijesekara, Chathuni; Tittagalla, Chamath; Jayathilaka, Ashinsana; Ilukpotha, Uvinya; Jayathilaka, Ruwan; Jayasinghe, P. K. S. C.

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0274386

Cited by 14 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Over time, it has been applied to diverse fields, from Economics [ 32 ] to Medicine [ 33 ]. Several research studies have further contributed to the development of the model, including the wavelet transformation of the two time series and the wavelet coherence at difference phases [ 34 – 37 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economy and elderly population, complementary or contradictory: A cross-continental wavelet coherence and cross-country Granger causality study

Galappaththi

Jayathilaka²,

Rajamanthri³

et al. 2023

PLoS ONE

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The aim of this study is to explore the causal relationship between the economy and the elderly population globally as well as continent-wise. This research was designed as a continent-wide study to investigate the differences between several regions simultaneously. The economy was measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita growth rate while the population aged above 65 as a percentage of the total was considered the elderly population. A panel dataset published by the World Bank for a period of six decades from 1961 to 2020 covering 84 countries was used as data for the analysis. Wavelet coherence was the methodology used for the study since it was considered suitable to present causality as well as the causal direction between the two variables for different sections during the six decades. Thereafter, Granger causality was applied for a cross-country analysis to gain further insights on the causality of individual countries over the years. Findings of the study reveal that the causality and its direction have been changing over time for most continents. Negative correlations with the leading variable interchanging with time are evident for the majority of the regions. Nevertheless, results indicate that in a global perspective, elderly population predominantly leads the economic growth with a positive correlation. Research approach allows ascertaining the short-term and medium-term changes that occurred concerning the direction of the relationship throughout the stipulated period of the study, which could not be drawn by any previous study. Even though region-wise literature is available on this topic, global studies for decades have not been conducted yet.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economy and elderly population, complementary or contradictory: A cross-continental wavelet coherence and cross-country Granger causality study

Galappaththi

Jayathilaka²,

Rajamanthri³

et al. 2023

PLoS ONE

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“…Dependency of time frequency between FDI, economic growth and other variables were obtained through wavelet approach which was premised on the work of Goupillaud, Grossmann [ 92 ]. The use of the technique in finance, economics and tourism related data was also incited by Pal and Mitra [ 93 ] and Wijesekara, Tittagalla [ 94 ], highlighting on the structural break which is often common in the discipline. Alola and Kirikkaleli [ 95 ], Adebayo [ 96 ], Kalmaz and Kirikkaleli [ 97 ], Adebayo [ 98 ], have further contributed in the development of the model, including the wavelet transformation of the two time series and the wavelet coherence at difference phases.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

More than just investment: Causality analysis between foreign direct investment and economic growth

et al. 2022

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This study examines the causal nexus between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and the economic growth of seven (7) regions encompassing 117 countries. A more recent panel dataset over the period 2010–2020 was analysed using the Granger causality approach and panel VAR/block exogeneity test to conduct predictive analysis among the panel series. Wavelet coherence techniques too were adapted in bringing novelty and further justifications to the research in exploring the interaction effects of the variables, which are yet to be popularised in the studied discipline. The empirical results indicate the presence of bi-directional causality between FDI and economic growth globally and in the Asian region. In contrast, the causality is uni-directional in the American region. A non-directional causality was discovered in European, Oceanian, Mediterranean, and African regions, and the findings were consistent with the outcome of the wavelet coherence technique results. The study further classifies the regions into three cross-market categories such as developed, emerging and frontier markets. The results imply no causality for most developed and emerging economies in the regional analysis. Findings also provide insights for governments and policymakers worldwide to formulate policies on directing FDI flows and propositions for a host country to become a more conducive destination for FDI and accelerate economic growth.

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“…Time series is divided into a frequency-time domain under the wavelet coherence concept developed by Goupillaud and Grossmann [43]. Several research studies later enhanced the applicability of wavelet in social sciences [44][45][46][47]. In-depth understanding was made possible with the combination of the Granger causality test and the wavelet coherence approach.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The cost of aging: Economic growth perspectives for Europe

et al. 2023

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This study explores the causal relationship between the economy and the elderly population in 15 European countries. The economy was measured by the Per Capita Gross Domestic Product growth rate, while the population aged above 65 as a percentage of the total was considered the elderly population. The data were obtained from a time series dataset published by the World Bank for six decades from 1961 to 2021. The Granger causality test was employed in the study to analyse the impact between the economy and the elderly population. An alternate approach, wavelet coherence, was used to demonstrate the changes to the relationship between the two variables in Europe over the 60 years. The findings from the Granger causality test indicate a unidirectional Granger causality from the economy to the elderly population for Luxembourg, Austria, Denmark, Spain, and Sweden, while vice versa for Greece and the United Kingdom. Furthermore, for Belgium, Finland, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, and Turkey, Granger causality does not exist between the said variables. Moreover, wavelet coherence analysis depicts that for Europe, the elderly population negatively affected the economic growth in the 1960s, and vice versa in the 1980s.

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Tourism and economic growth: A global study on Granger causality and wavelet coherence

Cited by 14 publications

References 48 publications

Economy and elderly population, complementary or contradictory: A cross-continental wavelet coherence and cross-country Granger causality study

Economy and elderly population, complementary or contradictory: A cross-continental wavelet coherence and cross-country Granger causality study

More than just investment: Causality analysis between foreign direct investment and economic growth

The cost of aging: Economic growth perspectives for Europe

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