Total phosphorus and climate are equally important predictors of water quality in lakes

Shuvo, Arnab; O’Reilly, Catherine M.; Blagrave, Kevin; Ewins, Carolyn; Filazzola, Alessandro; Gray, Derek K.; Mahdiyan, Octavia; Moslenko, Luke; Quinlan, Roberto; Sharma, Sapna

doi:10.1007/s00027-021-00776-w

Cited by 29 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…While elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations affect global temperatures, they can also influence the strain composition of cyanobacterial populations and thus toxin concentrations through increasing concentrations of dissolved CO 2 [25], particularly in eutrophic and hypertrophic waterbodies [26]. Shuvo et al [27] comprehensively discuss the wide range of interacting variables that influence the extent of climate change effects. Besides temperature, this includes lake basin morphology and orientation, hydrology and trophic state but also solar irradiation and cloud cover.…”

Section: Impact Of Climate Change On Conditions In Waterbodiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Publications on the impact of climate change on phytoplankton follow two different approaches: some evaluate data across a larger number of waterbodies for associations between blooms and elevated temperatures, applying multivariate statistics or neural networks [27,35,36]. Associations thus found can provide valuable indicative information particularly where different data sets and statistical approaches show similar results.…”

Section: Impact Of Climate Change On Conditions In Waterbodiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Evaluating a large data set (2561 lakes across seven countries), Shuvo et al [27] found TP to be the main single predictor of phytoplankton biomass (measured as Chl-a concentration), accounting for 42% of the variation, but spring and summer weather (temperature, precipitation and cloud cover) were almost equally relevant for the concentrations of Chl-a, while physical characteristics (residence time, mean depth, surface area and elevation) together accounted for 20% of the variation. However, this evaluation did not differentiate lakes by trophic status, and these percentages are specific to this data set.…”

Section: Climate Change Is Not Likely To Exacerbate Blooms In Oligotrophic and Oligo-mesotrophic Waterbodiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Cyanobacteria and Cyanotoxins in a Changing Environment: Concepts, Controversies, Challenges

Chorus

Fastner

Welker³

2021

Water

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Concern is widely being published that the occurrence of toxic cyanobacteria is increasing in consequence of climate change and eutrophication, substantially threatening human health. Here, we review evidence and pertinent publications to explore in which types of waterbodies climate change is likely to exacerbate cyanobacterial blooms; whether controlling blooms and toxin concentrations requires a balanced approach of reducing not only the concentrations of phosphorus (P) but also those of nitrogen (N); how trophic and climatic changes affect health risks caused by toxic cyanobacteria. We propose the following for further discussion: (i) Climate change is likely to promote blooms in some waterbodies—not in those with low concentrations of P or N stringently limiting biomass, and more so in shallow than in stratified waterbodies. Particularly in the latter, it can work both ways—rendering conditions for cyanobacterial proliferation more favourable or less favourable. (ii) While N emissions to the environment need to be reduced for a number of reasons, controlling blooms can definitely be successful by reducing only P, provided concentrations of P can be brought down to levels sufficiently low to stringently limit biomass. Not the N:P ratio, but the absolute concentration of the limiting nutrient determines the maximum possible biomass of phytoplankton and thus of cyanobacteria. The absolute concentrations of N or P show which of the two nutrients is currently limiting biomass. N can be the nutrient of choice to reduce if achieving sufficiently low concentrations has chances of success. (iii) Where trophic and climate change cause longer, stronger and more frequent blooms, they increase risks of exposure, and health risks depend on the amount by which concentrations exceed those of current WHO cyanotoxin guideline values for the respective exposure situation. Where trophic change reduces phytoplankton biomass in the epilimnion, thus increasing transparency, cyanobacterial species composition may shift to those that reside on benthic surfaces or in the metalimnion, changing risks of exposure. We conclude that studying how environmental changes affect the genotype composition of cyanobacterial populations is a relatively new and exciting research field, holding promises for understanding the biological function of the wide range of metabolites found in cyanobacteria, of which only a small fraction is toxic to humans. Overall, management needs case-by-case assessments focusing on the impacts of environmental change on the respective waterbody, rather than generalisations.

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Section: Impact Of Climate Change On Conditions In Waterbodiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Impact Of Climate Change On Conditions In Waterbodiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Change Is Not Likely To Exacerbate Blooms In Oligotrophic and Oligo-mesotrophic Waterbodiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Cyanobacteria and Cyanotoxins in a Changing Environment: Concepts, Controversies, Challenges

Chorus

Fastner

Welker³

2021

Water

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“…Moreover, numerous studies have also found an influence of climate on water quality [15][16][17][18][19][20], which is of great importance for ecosystems and societies, as many sectors (e.g., human health, industry, water supply and sanitation, or tourism) depend on water resources and their availability in good condition. However, the quality of surface and groundwater has generally declined in recent decades as a consequence of the growth of agricultural and industrial activities, coupled with changes in hydrological regimes associated with climate change having important socio-economic impacts [21,22].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Taking into account the current and projected climate change scenarios, it is necessary to incorporate information on climate-related risks and impacts into operational and strategic decision-making processes in order to reduce the deterioration of water quality [20,23]. This is a major effort, as it is necessary to assess specific climatic conditions and the extent to which they are capable of modifying water quality, while taking into account land use and management, population distribution and other factors [17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Climate Change on Water Quality in the Jucar River Basin (Spain)

Martínez

Galiano²,

Rubio³

et al. 2021

Water

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The Mediterranean region is a climate change hotspot, especially concerning issues of hydrological planning and urban water supply systems. In this context, the Jucar River Basin (Spain) presents an increase of frequency, intensity and duration of extreme meteorological phenomena, such as torrential rains, droughts or heat waves, which directly affect the quantity and quality of raw water available for drinking. This paper aims to analyze the effects of climate change on the raw water quality of the Jucar River Basin District, which mainly supplies the city of Valencia and its metropolitan area, in order to adapt drinking water treatments to new conditions and opportunities. For this purpose, we used observed data of water quality parameters from four stations and climate drivers from seven Earth system models of the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 6. To model water quality (turbidity and conductivity) in the past and future scenarios, this study employs a backward stepwise regression taking into account daily values of mean temperature, maximum temperature, total rainfall and minimum and maximum relative humidity. Results showed that the model performance of the water quality simulation is more adequate for short moving-average windows (about 2–7 days) for turbidity and longer windows (about 30–60 days) for conductivity. Concerning the future scenarios, the most significant change was found in the projected increase of conductivity for the station of the Júcar river, between 4 and 11% by 2100, respectively, under the medium (SSP2–4.5) and pessimistic (SSP5–8.5) emission scenarios. The joint use of these types of management and monitoring tools may help the managers in charge of carrying out the different water treatments needed to apply a better plan to raw water and may help them identify future threats and investment needs to adapt the urban water supply systems to the changing conditions of raw water, such as turbidity or conductivity, as a consequence of climate change.

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Winter and summer storms modify chlorophyll relationships with nutrients in seasonally ice‐covered lakes

et al. 2022

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At broad spatial scales, primary productivity in lakes is known to increase in concert with nutrients, and variables that may disrupt or modify the tight coupling of nutrients and algae are of increasing interest, particularly for those shifting with climate change. Storms may disrupt algae–nutrient relationships, but the expected effects differ between winter and summer seasons, particularly for seasonally ice‐covered lakes. In winter, storms can dramatically change the under‐ice light environment, creating light limitation that disrupts algae–nutrient relationships. Further, storms can bring both snow that blocks light and also wind that blows snow off of ice. In open water conditions, storms may promote turbulence and external nutrient loading. Here, we test the hypotheses that winter and summer storms differentially affect algae–nutrient relationships across 84 seasonally ice‐covered lakes included in the Ecology Under Lake Ice dataset. While nutrients explained most of the variation in chlorophyll across these lakes, we found that secondary drivers differed between seasons. Under‐ice chlorophyll was higher under a variety of precipitation and wind conditions that tend to promote snow‐free clear ice, highlighting the importance of light as a limiting factor for algal growth during winter. In summer, higher water temperatures and storms corresponded with higher chlorophyll. Our study suggests that examining ice‐covered lakes in a gradient from the perennial ice cover of the poles to the intermittent ice cover of lower latitudes would yield key information on the shifts in light and nutrient limitation that control algal biomass.

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Total phosphorus and climate are equally important predictors of water quality in lakes

Cited by 29 publications

References 74 publications

Cyanobacteria and Cyanotoxins in a Changing Environment: Concepts, Controversies, Challenges

Cyanobacteria and Cyanotoxins in a Changing Environment: Concepts, Controversies, Challenges

Effects of Climate Change on Water Quality in the Jucar River Basin (Spain)

Winter and summer storms modify chlorophyll relationships with nutrients in seasonally ice‐covered lakes

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