Total efficient risk priority number (TERPN): a new method for risk assessment

Bona, Gianpaolo Di; Silvestri, Alessandro; Forcina, Antonio; Petrillo, Antonella

doi:10.1080/13669877.2017.1307260

Cited by 53 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…This personalized measurement could offer a strong foundation to explore new areas for risk perception studies, even for risk assessment. For example, the perceived risk estimated from physiological responses can be integrated with other reliable risk assessment methods such as total efficiency risk priority number (TERPN) [61].…”

Section: Discussion and Limitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Relationship between Different Types of Alarm Sounds and Children’s Perceived Risk Based on Their Physiological Responses

Zhou

Jia

et al. 2019

IJERPH

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Due to differences in cognitive ability and physiological development, the evacuation characteristics of children are different from those of adults. This study proposes a novel method of using wearable sensors to collect data (e.g., electrodermal activity, EDA; heart rate variability, HRV) on children's physiological responses, and to continuously and quantitatively evaluate the effects of different types of alarm sounds during the evacuation of children. In order to determine the optimum alarm for children, an on-site experiment was conducted in a kindergarten to collect physiological data for responses to different types of alarm sounds during the evacuation of 42 children of different ages. The results showed that: (1) The alarm sounds led to changes in physiological indicators of children aged 3-6 years, and the effects of different types of alarm sounds on EDA and HRV activities were significantly different (p < 0.05). Skin conductance (SC), skin conductance tonic (SCT) and skin conductance level (SCL) can be used as the main indicators for analysing EDA of children in this experiment (p < 0.05), and the indicators of ultralow frequency (ULF) and very low frequency (VLF) for HRV were not affected by the type of alarm sounds (p > 0.05). (2) Unlike adults, kindergarten children were more susceptible to the warning siren. The combined voice and warning alarm had optimal effects in stimulating children to perceive risk. (3) For children aged 3-6 years, gender had a significant impact on children's reception to evacuation sound signals (p < 0.05): Girls are more sensitive than boys in receiving evacuation sound signals, similar to findings of studies of risk perception of adult males and females. In addition, the higher the age, the greater the sensitivity to evacuation sound signals, which accords with results of previous studies on the evacuation dynamics of children.

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Section: Discussion and Limitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Relationship between Different Types of Alarm Sounds and Children’s Perceived Risk Based on Their Physiological Responses

Zhou

Jia

et al. 2019

IJERPH

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“…The software implementation can be performed using the ArcPy programming language, the Matlab computational modeling system, and the rapid application development environment RAD Studio together with Origin Pro software [79][80][81][82]. The methodology for forest fire risk assessment can be based on developments in the field of complex risk assessment, which is used in industry [83,84]. Program tools developed on the basis of the considered mathematical model can be applied for different problems in forest fire management, such as forest fire danger and spread prediction [85], classification and mapping of wildland fuels [86], analysis of fire regime [87], operation in global vegetation models [88], and prediction of grass mortality [89].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mathematical Modeling of Heat Transfer in an Element of Combustible Plant Material When Exposed to Radiation from a Forest Fire

Baranovskiy

Demikhova

2019

Safety

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The last few decades have been characterized by an increase in the frequency and burned area of forest fires in many countries of the world. Needles, foliage, branches, and herbaceous plants are involved in burning during forest fires. Most forest fires are surface ones. The purpose of this study was to develop a mathematical model of heat transfer in an element of combustible plant material, namely, in the stem of a herbaceous plant, when exposed to radiation from a surface forest fire. Mathematically, the process of heat transfer in an element of combustible plant material was described by a system of non-stationary partial differential equations with corresponding initial and boundary conditions. The finite difference method was used to solve this system of equations in combination with a locally one-dimensional method for solving multidimensional tasks of mathematical physics. Temperature distributions were obtained as a result of modeling in a structurally inhomogeneous stem of a herbaceous plant for various scenarios of the impact of a forest fire. The results can be used to develop new systems for forest fire forecasting and their environmental impact prediction.

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“…Risk objective is another important objective when the routing is for hazardous materials transportation. Risk assessment is thereby very important [59]. In the multimodal transportation of hazardous materials, the risk derives from the transportation process and transshipment process.…”

Section: Setting Optimization Criterion: a Bi-objective Optimizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Bi-Objective Fuzzy Credibilistic Chance-Constrained Programming Approach for the Hazardous Materials Road-Rail Multimodal Routing Problem under Uncertainty and Sustainability

Sun

Li²,

Liang

et al. 2019

Sustainability

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Hazardous materials transportation involves extensive risk and cannot be avoided in practice. An advanced routing, however, can help to reduce the risk by planning the best transportation routes for hazardous materials that can make effective tradeoffs between the risk objective and the economic objective. In this study, we explore the hazardous materials routing problem in the road-rail multimodal transportation network with a hub-and-spoke structure, in which the risk is measured by the multiplication of population exposure and the associated volume of hazardous materials, and minimizing the total risk of all the transportation orders of hazardous materials is set as the risk objective. It is difficult to estimate the population exposure exactly during the routing decision-making process, which results in its uncertainty. In this study, we formulate the uncertain population exposure from a fuzzy programming perspective by using triangular fuzzy numbers. Moreover, the carbon dioxide emission constraint is formulated to realize the sustainable transportation of hazardous materials. To optimize the problem under the above framework, we first establish a bi-objective fuzzy mixed integer nonlinear programming model, and then develop a three-stage exact solution strategy that the combines fuzzy credibilistic chance constraint, linearization technique, and the normalized weighting method. Finally, a computational experiment is carried out to verify the feasibility of the proposed method in dealing with the problem. The experimental results indicate that tradeoffs between the two conflicting objectives can be effectively made by using the Pareto frontier to the hazardous materials routing problem. Furthermore, the credibility level and carbon dioxide emission cap significantly influence the hazardous materials routing optimization. Their effects on the optimization result are quantified by using sensitivity analysis, which can draw some useful insights to help decision makers to better organize the hazardous materials road-rail multimodal transportation under uncertainty and sustainability.

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Total efficient risk priority number (TERPN): a new method for risk assessment

Cited by 53 publications

References 17 publications

The Relationship between Different Types of Alarm Sounds and Children’s Perceived Risk Based on Their Physiological Responses

The Relationship between Different Types of Alarm Sounds and Children’s Perceived Risk Based on Their Physiological Responses

Mathematical Modeling of Heat Transfer in an Element of Combustible Plant Material When Exposed to Radiation from a Forest Fire

A Bi-Objective Fuzzy Credibilistic Chance-Constrained Programming Approach for the Hazardous Materials Road-Rail Multimodal Routing Problem under Uncertainty and Sustainability

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