Tornado fatalities and mobile homes in the United States

Sutter, Daniel; Simmons, Kevin M.

doi:10.1007/s11069-009-9416-x

Cited by 63 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 16 publications

(22 reference statements)

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“…Tornado fatalities in the United States have been studied over time, by month, by time of day and the day of week, by state/region, by F scale or EF scale rating, by lead time, by place or location of death, by age and sex of the deceased, and so forth (e.g., Daley et al 2005;Ashley 2007;Wurman et al 2007;Simmons and Sutter 2008;Sutter and Simmons 2010;Sutter 2011, 2012;Simmons et al 2012). Simmons and Sutter (2011) have identified four major vulnerabilities for tornado casualties: tornadoes that occur overnight, tornados that occur during the fall/winter months, residence in a mobile home, and location in the United States (specifically, the southeastern part of the United States; see also Schmidlin et al 2009;Chaney and Weaver 2010).…”

Section: Tornado Fatalities: An Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatial Analyses of the 2011 Joplin Tornado Mortality: Deaths by Interpolated Damage Zones and Location of Victims

Paul

Stimers

2014

Weather, Climate, and Society

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On 22 May 2011, a massive tornado tore through a densely populated section of Joplin, Missouri, killing 162 people. The EF5 tornado was the deadliest single tornado to occur in the United States since modern record keeping began in 1950, surpassing the tornado of 8 June 1953, which claimed 116 lives in Flint, Michigan. The Joplin tornado death toll was also far higher than the average annual number of deaths caused by tornadoes in the United States between 2000 and 2011. This study analyzed Joplin deaths by damage zone and place of death. Tabular data collected primarily from secondary sources revealed the number of deaths and death rates differ significantly by zone of destruction. The central zone (labeled as ''catastrophic'') had the most deaths, with the number decreasing systematically in both directions from the center of that zone. The results of this study further show that more people died in nonresidential buildings in Joplin than is usual in a U.S. tornado event, calling into question how well such structures protect occupants. Finally, the lack of basements in residential and other structures most likely contributed greatly to the high death toll, although the degree remains uncertain. Several recommendations are offered to reduce future U.S. tornado fatalities.

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Section: Tornado Fatalities: An Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…7 Sutter and Simmons (2010) reported that more fatalities occur in mobile homes in less powerful tornadoes-those rated EF1, EF2, or EF3 on the EF scale-than fatalities overall. More specifically, EF1 and EF2 tornadoes are potentially lethal for residents of mobile homes.…”

Section: Location Of Deathmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial Analyses of the 2011 Joplin Tornado Mortality: Deaths by Interpolated Damage Zones and Location of Victims

Paul

Stimers

2014

Weather, Climate, and Society

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“…In terms of housing type, the most vulnerable populations are those living in mobile homes (Brooks and Doswell 2002;Sutter 2005, 2008a;Ashley 2007;Sutter and Simmons 2009;Chaney and Weaver 2010). Timing of the storm can increase vulnerability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The role of the cry-wolf effect is not fully known and Barnes et al (2007) found that an isolated false alarm may not be detrimental to warning response. Simmons and Sutter (2009) found that local, recent false alarms increased tornado fatalities and injuries. A one standard deviation increase in the false alarm ratio increased expected fatalities 12%-29% and expected injuries 13%-32% (Simmons and Sutter 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Simmons and Sutter (2009) found that local, recent false alarms increased tornado fatalities and injuries. A one standard deviation increase in the false alarm ratio increased expected fatalities 12%-29% and expected injuries 13%-32% (Simmons and Sutter 2009). However, Simmons and Sutter (2009) note that since they used casualties as a proxy for warning response, they have no direct evidence that false alarms affect warning credibility.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Relationship between Tornadic and Nontornadic Convective Wind Fatalities and Warnings

Black¹,

Ashley²

2011

Wea. Climate Soc.

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A database of tornado fatalities, nontornadic convective wind fatalities, severe thunderstorm warnings, and tornado warnings was compiled for the period 1986-2007 to assess the spatial and temporal distribution of warned and unwarned fatalities. The time of fatality and location as reported in Storm Data was compared to tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings to determine if a warning was in effect when the fatality occurred. Overall, 23.7% of tornado fatalities were unwarned, while 53.2% of nontornadic convective wind fatalities were unwarned. Most unwarned tornado fatalities occurred prior to the mid-1990s-coinciding with modernization of the National Weather Service-while unwarned nontornadic convective wind fatalities remained at a relatively elevated frequency throughout the study period. Geographic locations with high numbers of unwarned tornado and nontornadic convective wind fatalities were associated with one high-magnitude event that was unwarned rather than a series of smaller unwarned events over the period. There are many factors that contribute to warning response by the public, and the issuance of a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning is an important initial step in the warning process. A better understanding of the characteristics of warned and unwarned fatalities is important to future reduction of unwarned fatalities.

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Population and energy elasticity of tornado casualties

Fricker

Elsner

Jagger

2017

Geophysical Research Letters

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Tornadoes are capable of catastrophic destruction and mass casualties, but there are yet no estimates of how sensitive the number of casualties are to changes in the number of people in harm's way or to changes in tornado energy. Here the relationship between tornado casualties (deaths and injuries), population, and energy dissipation is quantified using the economic concept of “elasticity.” Records of casualties from individual tornadoes over the period 2007–2015 are fit to a regression model. The coefficient on the population term (population elasticity) indicates that a doubling in population increases the casualty rate by 21% [(17, 24)%, 95% credible interval]. The coefficient on the energy term (energy elasticity) indicates that a doubling in energy dissipation leads to a 33% [(30, 35)%, 95% credible interval] increase in the casualty rate. The difference in elasticity values show that on average, changes in energy dissipation have been relatively more important in explaining tornado casualties than changes in population. Assuming no changes in warning effectiveness or mitigation efforts, these elasticity estimates can be used to project changes in casualties given the known population trends and possible trends in tornado activity.

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Tornado fatalities and mobile homes in the United States

Cited by 63 publications

References 16 publications

Spatial Analyses of the 2011 Joplin Tornado Mortality: Deaths by Interpolated Damage Zones and Location of Victims

Spatial Analyses of the 2011 Joplin Tornado Mortality: Deaths by Interpolated Damage Zones and Location of Victims

The Relationship between Tornadic and Nontornadic Convective Wind Fatalities and Warnings

Population and energy elasticity of tornado casualties

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